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As I see it, right now that only "fringe party" currently active that has a valid shot at splitting from the main parties and launching a successful national third party, as much as it pains me to say it, is the Tea Party. As I see it, the Tea party does not need the republican party as much as the republican party needs them. That said, such a split would not be at the expense of democrats and would leave both the repuiblicans and the Tea party in a relatively weak bargaining position, at least for the time being.
I think that there is a lot of room for yet another party in this country, a centrist party with clear policies both to the left and right of center. Sadly being a centrist in this country often leads to bad press, so even politicians who are centrists tend to avoid being painted as such in the press.
I would think the best situation is where you have three parties;
A Center Right party
A Center Left party
A Centerist Liberal party
In a lot of countries the latter two are one and the same, but I'd rather have them seperate.