Weekend discussion: The Future of Smart Phone/Notebook Hybrid

[snapper.fishes]

With the release of Motorola Atrix 4G, it should be clear that the future of computer + Smart Phone hybrids are certain. At the very least, they should be able to take over the low to mid range laptop markets. (Note: Here I am classifying notebooks by their processing + graphics power. So an expensive 10" notebook with an i7 CPU would still be a low to mid range notebook because of its lack of a powerful dedicated graphics card.) They might also be able to take over the low range desktop market. However, it is unlikely that they will ever completely replace desktop computers. If you can pack a powerful computer inside a small smartphone, you can pack a lot more in a desktop tower.

So that leaves only 2 questions - when it will become prevalent, and which OS will be leading. As of now, neither Android or iOS is suited for a keyboard + mouse/touch pad set up, and touch screens larger than 10" are still too expenisve to product. In addition, poking a vertical screen can become very tiring after long period of usage. Just try holding your hand in front of the screen for 15 minutes.

Microsoft has recently annouced that it has succesfully run Windows 7 and Office on ARM architecture. However, Windows 7's interface is not suitable for a smartphone. Microsoft can potentially merge Windows 7 and Phone 7 so that the interface changes depending on whether the phone is plugged into a dock or not.

Google can also do a similar thing - merge Chrome OS with Android (which has been suggested before).

As for Apple, they are already merging features between the iOS and the Mac OS, so it should not be too surprising if the two actually merge in the future.

The introduction of a iPhone/Mac Air hybrid probably would not make too much of a difference in market share. However, if Google makes a successful transition into the notebook market, it can potentially knock Microsoft out of the low to mid range notebook market. Reason: Users of low to mid range notebook market are either looking for ultra-portability or affordability, both of which are better offered by a smartphone/notebook hybrid instead of a normal notebook + a phone. (A little clarification - I am assuming that cellphones have become a necessity, so every notebook owner would need a cellphone as well.)

So who do you think will dominate in the long run?

P.S. Thanks for reading.

 

[turn_key]

Agreed.

I think the market will see smaller laptops/netbooks/tablets running android or apple and such tethered to a phone. The real hurdle has always been software availability. Smart devices have become more productive and the gap between PC/Microsoft and everything else is closing. People are starting to see there are alternatives to Windows machines without the loss of software and productivity... which makes me believe android will dominate.

Anytime I think of this subject it triggers memories of my mother in law and and a few friends getting sold on an iphone. The salesman was so nice and said how easy it would be use it she said. How do I transfer music, itunes what? updates to fix dropped calls huh? I heard that getting it out of jail, or something like that, makes it better... I can go on and on. Not to mention getting an app approved for itunes. I don't care for Microsoft's tactics and Apple has become just as bad.

I don't care what the iphone does. If I can't drag/drop music into a folder then I don't want it. Shit... even my blackberry could copy and paste! I don't want to use your software and don't tell me what apps I can use. How many people already share my sentiment...

My point is, the more they squeeze and try to control, the more market share they lose.

just mah 2 cents...