I think if you are less than 1/2 an hour away you have a decent chance... How many followers are there for this? Maybe a few hundred thousand for the WHOLE COUNTRY?? Also, even more are only just finding out about the contest and probably didn't even think much of it to even try. Then consider that most people have to drive in, find parking, get lost and all.... if you have the GPS updated on your phone, you have a chance!
The ones with the best chance are the ones with the best knowledge, and that is US!