I've been thinking this one over. I think Google has implemented the 15-minute refund window as a structural disincentive for developers to create paid apps. Bear with me for a moment. From this consumer's perspective, 15 minutes is really not enough time to download and evaluate an app. As a result, I will be much less likely to try an app unless there is a "lite" version. So, if a developer wants my sale, the developer will have to make a "lite" app for me to try out on my device. Thus the developer will have to make, and support 2 apps just for one (potential) sale. What if I use the "lite" app, then decide that the paid version isn't worth my money? The developer just created 2 apps and didn't make any money from either of them. On the other hand, if the developer declines to provide a "lite" version of the app, I won't even consider buying it in the first place. The developer has already lost my sale. From a developer's perspective, is creating a paid app really worth the hassle?
So, as a consumer I have no incentive to experiment with an app unless there is a "lite" version. And a developer will have to make two apps ("lite" and full) just to even have a chance at roping me in. What's a developer to do then?
Why create free, ad-supported apps! That way, I (the consumer) don't have to risk any money while I evaluate an app, and the developer only has to create and support one app. In the meantime, the developer gets paid every time I open the app and accidentally (or intentionally) click on an ad. Most importantly, Google makes money off of ad-supported apps. Just look at Angry Birds. Rovio has been pretty candid about their lack of motivation to create a paid version of Angry Birds. They'll get around to it eventually, but it doesn't seem to be a priority for them at the moment. Rovio gets paid every time a user opens Angry Birds, rather than just once after the initial sale. One unnamed developer of a popular ad-supported Android game told me via email, point-blank, that users who play ad-supported games in airplane mode - to block the ads - prevent the developer from getting paid. He also was concerned about piracy of paid apps, which is why he has no immediate plans to release a paid version of the popular and highly rated game. (Why would somebody pirate an app that is already free?)
Basically, I think Google is leveraging the Market as another advertising platform. The 15 minute refund window simply makes it less convenient for folks like me to pay for apps, less convenient for developers to make (and profit from) paid apps, and more convenient for developers to create free, ad-supported apps instead.
I dunno, maybe I'm just grasping for straws here. But it just makes no sense to neuter the 24-hour refund window, unless Google intends to encourage the development of more free, ad-supported apps (with ads provided by Google via AdMob). I'll be watching to see whether free, ad-supported apps become the norm over the next six months. If the Android Market moves towards an ad-supported platform, I just may have to consider moving to a different platform that encourages developers to make paid, ad-free apps. I prefer to pay for my apps so that I don't have to be subjected to ads every single time I use the app. I might be in the minority though. I think this 15 minute refund window is Google's way of nudging developers and consumers alike towards a free, ad-supported Market. Time will tell.