Is android dying

[bbrosen]

look, i love my samsung galaxy s showcase, I really do, hated my first phone the hero. It was a bad phone from the get go, but anyway, the gen public does not pore over these forums, we are not really the masses, the gen public, we are the geeks, we root, modify play tweak push the limits, I use vpn's port forwarding etc etc and i even have hacked my router at home and put ddwrt software on it...where the ave joe does not...I talk to a lot of the public...people do not know how to set up their own email for the most part let alone root a phone. Even for a geek like me playing with android just to get a phone to work like a damn phone was trying, the hero pushed my buttons for sure as well as android os along with my carrier and htc.

Lots of people were put off by the hero and have sworn off android after the phone and 2.1 screwed up update from our carrier, even when the desire and galaxy s came out people went back to their blackberry or went to get the iphone. we cannot be all that of an isolated case. People say android? naw not for me, it sucks, slow buggy hard to understand...thats the public for ya.


Now as for me, I was thrown into android, it's ok to tinker with it, but now that the phones have gotten better, rooting is not as much as a big deal for me as i have no lag, no gps problems or space issues. I use android because my job pays my phone bill, i just pick the phone and buy it myself and it;s android or balckberry with my carrier . ...i still covet my wifes iphone 4 tho, but i can live with android now...

To me it's crazy and confusing to have all these carriers and handset makers skin and add bloat as well as other markets, people will not know android from adam, maybe it;s not supposed to matter.


But anyway, I have come to embrace the beast so to speak...

 

[lunatic59]

Lots of people were put off by the hero and have sworn off android after the phone and 2.1 screwed up update from our carrier, even when the desire and galaxy s came out people went back to their blackberry or went to get the iphone. we cannot be all that of an isolated case. People say android? naw not for me, it sucks, slow buggy hard to understand...thats the public for ya.

The problem with that statement is that the numbers don't bear that out. Android continues to show market growth while other platforms are slowing down. If there was even a moderate exodus from Android due to poor user experience, the growth statistics would be much flatter. I am sure there are users who had bad experiences, especially those who bought certain handsets that were slow laggy and under-spec'ed. And I am also certain that some of them opted for an alternate platform for their subsequent phones. But a small percentage of dissatisfied customers does not seem to be reversing the momentum Android has found in the last year.

 

[JaseZilla]

When you were unimpressed with the HTC phone was your initial reaction "Gee, Android isn't all that"? or did you think "HTC phones are kinda lame." From your average Joe and Jane consumer point of view, SenseUI, Motoblur and Touchwiz are as different as WP7 and iOS, even though the initial three are all overlays to the Android OS. And, I'd venture that anyone who owns one of those phones would be initially confused with vanilla Android.

Actually, it was none of those. It was more for me that i didnt like how it was laid out, and the processor was too slow for the phone making it horribly slow. I didnt find it enjoyable to navigate or use the phone at all.

 

[adi19956]

Actually, it was none of those. It was more for me that i didnt like how it was laid out, and the processor was too slow for the phone making it horribly slow. I didnt find it enjoyable to navigate or use the phone at all.

most Android phones aren't like that though, especially with the newer generation, they've got their problems with internal memory sorted out

 

[EarlyMon]

Android's growth is slowing down I heard, can't remember where though

lunatic59 is 100% correct on raw growth - but as for relative growth of market share, the numbers say quite a different story:

ComScore: Android keeps chugging, BlackBerry falters, world awaits Windows Phone 7's numbers -- Engadget

Android's growth rate is 8 times higher that iPhone, while Blackberry loses market share - and all sales figures for WP7 are so far quite lackluster.

It takes a little while to become Number One in market share - just give it a little time.

Last number I saw was that Google was activating 200,000 Android phones per DAY.

I not sure how one assesses apps in this sort of climate.

Android Market surpasses 100,000 apps: can't stop, won't stop growing -- Engadget

iPhone - 300k apps, Android 100k apps.

Aside from games - and Android's growth in that area is just taking off - it seems like either store tends to duplicate a MUCH smaller number of apps and that's about it.

 

[adi19956]

lunatic59 is 100% correct on raw growth - but as for relative growth of market share, the numbers say quite a different story:

ComScore: Android keeps chugging, BlackBerry falters, world awaits Windows Phone 7's numbers -- Engadget

Android's growth rate is 8 times higher that iPhone, while Blackberry loses market share - and all sales figures for WP7 are so far quite lackluster.

It takes a little while to become Number One in market share - just give it a little time.

Last number I saw was that Google was activating 200,000 Android phones per DAY.

I not sure how one assesses apps in this sort of climate.

Android Market surpasses 100,000 apps: can't stop, won't stop growing -- Engadget

iPhone - 300k apps, Android 100k apps.

Aside from games - and Android's growth in that area is just taking off - it seems like either store tends to duplicate a MUCH smaller number of apps and that's about it.

Android Phone Growth Slowing or Just in a Fall Lull? - ThinkMobile
I don't actually know too much about it
that says that it's the same as it was in August. That's 4 months the same.
Seeing as from July 2009 to July 2010 the increase in sales was 886% BBC News - Google Android phone shipments increase by 886% (they roughly increased their sales 10 fold), I would say the growth is slowing

 

[EarlyMon]

Android Phone Growth Slowing or Just in a Fall Lull? - ThinkMobile
I don't actually know too much about it
that says that it's the same as it was in August. That's 4 months the same.
Seeing as from July 2009 to July 2010 the increase in sales was 886% BBC News - Google Android phone shipments increase by 886% (they roughly increased their sales 10 fold), I would say the growth is slowing

That actually substantiates what lunatic59 was saying.

On 6/24/2010, activations were announced at 160k/day - so in about 6 weeks, that increased to 200k/day, if the first source you give is trustworthy.

That's not constant growth - that's a curve upward in growth. If that growth were 40k/6-weeks, then in a year, that would 500k/day. If that growth were based on percentage, then that would be nearly 700k/day after a year.

A year of that would put you between around 150 and 200 million phones a year - just Android. Another year of that would be more specatular - and another year or so after that, you're defying the laws of gravity or something D ) because in another year, you'd be activating about 5 million Androids /day. (*)

So - all growth has to slow at some point.

If we're steady at 200k/day - then that's a 45 degree line of growth on a chart - pretty good.

And - in this market, that's a bigger growth-slope up than the others.

(*) All math approximate, in my head, and subject to error - but geometric growth is like that, so maybe I'm right or maybe it'd take another year... either way, you know...

 

[adi19956]

surely we'd expect a vast increase in sales coming up to December? or have they not been counted yet? maybe you'll tell me that's irrelevant... I see your point with growth slowing down.
Let's hope it doesn't ever slow down though eh? I'd love to see really good game developers developing for Android. I hope they see these figures as an opportunity

 

[EarlyMon]

surely we'd expect a vast increase in sales coming up to December? or have they not been counted yet? maybe you'll tell me that's irrelevant... I see your point with growth slowing down.
Let's hope it doesn't ever slow down though eh? I'd love to see really good game developers developing for Android. I hope they see these figures as an opportunity

I agree with you on all points.

And, fwiw, I tend to not dismiss opinions as irrelevant.

I just do some math, but I'm no economist and I don't work in the cell phone industry - I have no idea when they'll report December or how it will compare to expectations.

I know that there are sites where that info exists - but so far as I know, you have to be in the industry, and it costs real money to gain a login account.

Most everything we all toss around together comes from people who have claimed to read those reports - or from press briefings.

That's why we have to be careful.

And one rag that gets it wrong every time is AppleInsider, in the OP.

Those guys are lower in reporting standards than the National Enquirer - and about as grounded in reality - seriously. The way they misquote...

But I digress - in any case - it's by us sharing info that we all socialize what we learn on this, and I'm way ok with that.

 

[lunatic59]

surely we'd expect a vast increase in sales coming up to December? or have they not been counted yet? maybe you'll tell me that's irrelevant... I see your point with growth slowing down.
Let's hope it doesn't ever slow down though eh? I'd love to see really good game developers developing for Android. I hope they see these figures as an opportunity

I don't think you are understanding the statistics. Every Android phone sold adds to the installed base of all Android phones, so in order to show growth at a constant rate, you'd have to increase the daily number of phones sold exponentially. Since that is not possible, what you will see in any popular selling device is diminishing growth percentages over time, even though, from a sales perspective, you are selling more phones today than you did last month.

 

[EarlyMon]

???

If tomorrow, 200k new androids are activated, then the android market share just grew by 200k. At the end of one month of that, the android market will have grown by 6 million units.

If these were consumables like potato chips, that would just mean constant consumption.

But for durable goods, constant sales means market growth.

Would we expect more holiday sales? I guess so...

 

[adi19956]

@EarlyMonI just hate saying things and people telling me it's irrelevant.
I was going to do the maths of it but I couldn't be bothered and couldn't think of a way to crunch the numbers (it's extremely late at night in the UK, tired)
And I don't know what the National Enquirer is... assuming it's a news channel or a newspaper? I'm a foreigner here :O

@lunatic59 if I can quote myself "I don't actually know too much about it"
I'm doing economics at school and we've just covered supply and demand so maybe I'll get back to you on that in a year's time when I know more about it

 

[adi19956]

???

If tomorrow, 200k new androids are activated, then the android market share just grew by 200k. At the end of one month of that, the android market will have grown by 6 million units.

If these were consumables like potato chips, that would just mean constant consumption.

But for durable goods, constant sales means market growth.

Would we expect more holiday sales? I guess so...

constant sales means growth, but it doesn't mean growth in sales numbers which was what I meant

 

[EarlyMon]

constant sales means growth, but it doesn't mean growth in sales numbers which was what I meant

Ah. Makes sense.

And I like to think of growth strictly in terms of ultimate market share, because it seems to level out external effects. If everyone's down, or everyone's up, then the economy's taken into account by market share growth numbers - it's a normalization, in other words.

It tends to indicate an answer to the question: how much growth is enough?

In our case, we're better than the others in that regard.

 

[EarlyMon]

@EarlyMonI just hate saying things and people telling me it's irrelevant.

Second time you mentioned that - did I do that? I don't recall and certainly didn't intend to.

I was going to do the maths of it but I couldn't be bothered and couldn't think of a way to crunch the numbers (it's extremely late at night in the UK, tired)
And I don't know what the National Enquirer is... assuming it's a news channel or a newspaper? I'm a foreigner here :O

Yeah, sorry - it's a REALLY terrible rag.

@lunatic59 if I can quote myself "I don't actually know too much about it"
I'm doing economics at school and we've just covered supply and demand so maybe I'll get back to you on that in a year's time when I know more about it

If you're studying supply and demand, good on ya - in that case, I think you've got your arms around it already and now it's just a matter of perspective and communicating.

 

[adi19956]

I'd say Android is better than others in every regard that's why I chose it.
But yeah, growth is best shown on two pie charts with each company labelled and a percentage of market share shown.
rather like this one... File:Smartphone share current.png - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia although it being Wikipedia I can't exactly trust it, it was just the first link on Google

 

[adi19956]

haha no you didn't I was just justifying me saying it
you having talked about durable and non-durable goods, done that too

 

[lunatic59]

constant sales means growth, but it doesn't mean growth in sales numbers which was what I meant

FWIW Garnter's statiscs show in the second quarter of 2009, Android accounted for only 1.7% of the global market and by the third quarter was 3.5%.

Gartner Says Worldwide Mobile Device Sales Grew 13.8 Percent in Second Quarter of 2010, But Competition Drove Prices Down

In the second quarter of 2010, Android phones had 17.2% of the global smartphone market and by the third quarter had displaced RIM for the number 2 position at 25.5%

Press Release: Gartner Reports Mobile Phone Sales Up 35 Percent 3Q 2010 | Mobile Marketing Blog

That would imply that overall handset sales continues to grow faster than the competition. There will be seasonal trends but that should effect all phones, not just Android.

 

[Guamguy]

lunatic59 is 100% correct on raw growth - but as for relative growth of market share, the numbers say quite a different story:

ComScore: Android keeps chugging, BlackBerry falters, world awaits Windows Phone 7's numbers -- Engadget

Android's growth rate is 8 times higher that iPhone, while Blackberry loses market share - and all sales figures for WP7 are so far quite lackluster.

It takes a little while to become Number One in market share - just give it a little time.

Last number I saw was that Google was activating 200,000 Android phones per DAY.

I not sure how one assesses apps in this sort of climate.

Android Market surpasses 100,000 apps: can't stop, won't stop growing -- Engadget

iPhone - 300k apps, Android 100k apps.

Aside from games - and Android's growth in that area is just taking off - it seems like either store tends to duplicate a MUCH smaller number of apps and that's about it.

According to Androlib.com, who is tracking Android Market submissions, the total number of submissions are now heading to the 200k mark. Go to the website and see the curve.

Last November there was over 24k submissions alone.

@arubin has tweeted the number of Android activations is over 300k.

Granted, personally I expect US sales growth to slow down, but Android growth is exploding in both in the CJK (China, Japan, Korea) and the BRICI (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia) not to mention other Asian countries like the Philippines, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Malaysia.

At least 50% of new smartphones sold in China are now Android. Android adoption goes deeper in China, since sub $200 Android tablets are eaten up like hot cakes, and Google doesn't register an Android without the Market as an activation.

Korea is understandable, being the backyard of Samsung, LG and Pantech. You can see this explosion by the rush of Korean branded Androids like Galaxy S and Optimus One. The Korean explosion is also marked by the growing number of Korean made titles for the Android Market, like KakaoTalk.

Japan is a surprise, yet not a surprise. The openness of Android that allows for custom regionalization in places like China, where it has boomed, is also a major factor with its sudden success in Japan. The Japanese could use Android and merge them with their unique mobile technologies like digital TV and mobile payments. These create Androids that are totally unique and suitable for the Japanese environment.

The last reported top sellers in japan, for the first time, the top five are smartphones. 1.) Sharp AU ISO3. 2.) Sharp Docomo Lynx 3D. 3.) iPhone 4 32gb. 4.) Samsung Galaxy S 5.) iPhone 4 16gb.

Doesn't sound much with the Galaxy S on fourth right? Actually, the first two phones here, the ISO3 and Lynx 3D, are Androids.

And more Japanese Androids to come. The Toshiba REGZA IS04 has just been released. More coming, like the Sharp Galapagos. The Revolution has begun for Japanese mobile, some already prophetically citing the end of the Keitai and the rise of the Sumarutofono. Sharp is leading the way in Androids in Japan, the poetic irony being that Sharp is also the first company to work closely with Andy Rubin for then Sidekicks of the past.