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Malaysia Airlines tragedies

We still have no idea what happened.
We have no idea if anyone on that plane is still alive.
If they are, we have no idea if they're still free.
This could actually be classic terrorism, with invisible victims.
If it is terrorism, we can't keep it from happening again.
But we can expect the homes of every single licensed pilot to be thoroughly searched very soon.
 
Fun facts and things that just hit me, so I'm posting them.

First - they tell us that the MH370 was a 777-200ER. According to Boeing, that has a maximum range of 7,725 nautical miles (14,305 km) or about 8890 statute (regular) miles. The rated cruise speed of .84 Mach = 640 mph or 556 knots but this was reported to be flying at around 542 mph or 471 knots (and you can verify that makes sense for time from Kuala Lampur to Beijing with this handy calculator and the flight schedule) - probably for fuel efficiency.

Here's the timeline according to Wikipedia and if the graph doesn't show for you, it says 8.5 hours fuel limit -

370.jpg

If you do the math, the maximum flying time of a 777-200ER is 13 to 16 hours.

We going by the common sense and common experience knowledge that airliners don't fly with max fuel if they can help it due to weight - because more weight is more cost.

We're going on maximum range of about 3000 miles of fuel left to get the maximum flying time.

And - that came courtesy of Malaysian officials and the press.

Given the track record of either, I don't think we know that.

We think we know that and I suppose it's probably true - but we do not know that.

I know I basically accepted some version of this (I can't find the one I last saw, so here's a similar one) -

16March_MalaysiaPlaneweb.jpg



But - thanks to that headwind/tailwind thing I mentioned in my last long post - I doubt that a circle is true.

After all - Kuala Lampur to Beijing is about 3,000 miles in the first place.

So, I've only accepted that as an approximation, not adjusted for windage and based on an assumption that the fuel on board was close to right because the press said so.

I think we can have reasonable theories of different maximum flying times without going in to anything exotic or fancy.

Unless our own NTSB officials, or the similar UK officials, have specified in an approved, on-the-record confirmation from a named source, and I missed it, the max flight time is only probably and generally correct imo.

I won't accept 16 hours flying time as reasonable because it's common knowledge that flights don't go off too heavy and with too much fuel - it costs to much to fly that way.

Two and a half extra hours of fuel is reasonable - I guess.

But how much fuel vs. how far the plane could actually get, minus any data for winds, and flight attitude - we do not know that.

And several early reports claimed that that plane could glide, no power or engines, for up to a hundred miles while descending from 35,000 feet - or it could drop like a rock.

So even the last satellite pings might leave a bigger area than we can guess.

~~~~~~~~~

Differential power, differential this or that.

I don't want to put anyone off with words. The root there is the word different, and in engineering it generally means two things are there. Two engines that can power differently, two wings that can lift differently.

If you've ever rowed your basic, standard, everyday rowboat - you've applied differential power. Your course will depend on wind, currents and how fast and hard you move one oar compared to the other.

~~~~~~~~~

Hope this helps. :(
 
Aliens abducted the plane and why over 300 cell phones silenced. ;)

All this is old news until they actually find the plane... time to move on.
 
Aliens abducted the plane and why over 300 cell phones silenced. ;)

All this is old news until they actually find the plane... time to move on.

Tell the 239 families waiting for news that it's time to move on. We may be armchair quarterbacking it in this thread, but we don't know if there are folks with a true vested interest reading this thread. Let's make sure we are sensitive to the feelings of all folks reading this.:)
 
Tell the 239 families waiting for news that it's time to move on. We may be armchair quarterbacking it in this thread, but we don't know if there are folks with a true vested interest reading this thread. Let's make sure we are sensitive to the feelings of all folks reading this.:)
At the same time, I think we can all be sensitive to the need to blow off steam or joke some (some) or drift around.

It's a totally frustrating situation for everyone.

I'm sure that the families want the plane found more than anyone.
 
Fair call. At work today I had an email with Gilligan's Island Professor, Gilligan, and the Skipper fiddling with a radio on a beach and the Malaysian Air plane in the lagoon in the background. My thought personally was "too soon" but that is me.
 
Fair call. At work today I had an email with Gilligan's Island Professor, Gilligan, and the Skipper fiddling with a radio on a beach and the Malaysian Air plane in the lagoon in the background. My thought personally was "too soon" but that is me.

There's no accounting for taste but that's probably how the families feel about the early official responses and the press all along.
 
No matter what way you look at it, I hope they discover something, anything.

Even if it is bad news, at least the folks waiting for confirmation will know one way or the other.

I really do hope they find those people alive.
 
Fair call. At work today I had an email with Gilligan's Island Professor, Gilligan, and the Skipper fiddling with a radio on a beach and the Malaysian Air plane in the lagoon in the background. My thought personally was "too soon" but that is me.

I've seen worse already, done jackass posted an ad in the Vietnam craigslist for a 777-300(wrong model) with some jokes in it.
 
They just blabbed on the TV news blips that some Africans in a remote area saw a jet fly right over their neighborhood that night, at a very low altitude, something none of them had ever seen. I can't find any mention of that on 'real' news sites, but if true, it would be the first real information we've had.
 
They just blabbed on the TV news blips that some Africans in a remote area saw a jet fly right over their neighborhood that night, at a very low altitude, something none of them had ever seen. I can't find any mention of that on 'real' news sites, but if true, it would be the first real information we've had.

I couldn't remember where it was either, but I found the link in my twitter feed.

Residents on remote island: We saw missing plane | New York Post
 
gm1ea3i012l01.jpg



A total of 19 million square km.

That's over 7.3 million square miles. Over 5.5 million square nautical miles.

Over 2 times the size of the continental USA.

Screaming relatives of passengers aboard missing Malaysia Airlines plane dragged from press briefing* - NY Daily News

Families protest.


Reports of Thailand having radar contact are pretty crazy, subtitle reads Thai officials say they didn't report a radar blip because Malaysia never asked -

He (Royal Thai Air Force spokesman Montol Suchookorn) said
 
And of course, the Malaysian officials are denying it for now (they'll probably change their position down the road like it seems they are always doing with this)
 
What in the . wow this is getting very deep and have to say I think they landed and maybe refuelling in Thai . since these guys didn't know what was going on .now if this is so these guys know the search area and may be ducking it . I Dont think that this plane will have anyone aboard alive cause food and water is starting to take control .
 
Due to a bug, I can't edit the above post. (edit - fixed here)

I just measured the shaded areas in that graph.

If I did that correctly, then the total area is 19 million sq km, not 19 for each arc.

That would be over 7.3 million square miles.

Or more than two continental USAs.

And that's a best guess based on other waypoints, like the distance from Rajkot, India to Bangladesh being over 1500 miles or the width of the arcs being two hours flying time.

The scale in the lower right is beyond inaccurate.

Good job on the graphic, Malaysia.

Way to go. :mad:
 
I'm sorry to say that I find "crashed somewhere in the vast area accessible to it" more plausible than that theory (though I find that one more plausible than the terrorism ones). The person's argument that if it had crashed we'd have seen the wreckage would depend very much on where you think it crashed.

(I'm sorry because an explanation that might have these people still alive is clearly preferable to the alternatives).

A further complication in all of this is an observation that I read today: many countries along the possible flightpaths may be reluctant to admit what they have or have not seen because it gives information on their military radar capabilities, or lack thereof.
 
Malaysia, FBI probing data from pilot's simulator

Malaysian investigators - with the help of the FBI - are trying to restore files deleted last month from the home flight simulator of the pilot aboard the missing Malaysia Airlines plane to see if they shed any light on the disappearance, officials said Wednesday.

Files containing records of simulations carried out on the program were deleted Feb. 3 from the device found in the home of the Malaysia Airlines pilot, Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah, Malaysian police chief Khalid Abu said.
 

Nothing on you - and who knows about the idea - but I'm once again forced to question what this word means: expert.

According to the story, he's Rick Mathews, of the National Center for Security & Preparedness at the Rockefeller College of Public Affairs & Policy of SUNY Albany.

Security & Preparedness... Public Affairs... Policy... State University of New York.

Sounds impressive as all get out to me. Sounds like someone who has the background to come up with a plausible theory to me too.

So - let's look at his resume.

Rick C. Mathews, Director - National Center for Security & Preparedness - Rockefeller College of Public Affairs & Policy - A National Leader in Public Affairs Education - University at Albany - SUNY

694_1918_crop150px.jpg


Prior to accepting his current position at the NCSP, Mathews served as the Assistant Director for Research and Development at the National Center for Biomedical Research and Training (NCBRT), Academy of Counter-Terrorist Education at Louisiana State University from January 2002 through July 2007. His initial assignment at the NCBRT was to oversee the development and management of counter-terrorist preparedness training programs within the bioterrorism, medical, and public health communities.

...

His professional experience includes more than 35 years in emergency medical services, hospital administration, emergency preparedness, counter-terrorism, and homeland security. Mathews held positions as Director of Emergency Medical Services, hospital vice-president, and director of risk management.

...

Mathews earned both his baccalaureate and master
 
And trust and believe every country has a military radar if itsnin good or bad shape a military radar does exist

Generally true, yes.

The rest of this is just "speaking of radar" and not arguing with you or anything.

Missing airliner latest update: Family anger erupts as Malaysia jet search appears deadlocked - Emirates 24/7

Montol said that at 1:28 a.m., Thai military radar "was able to detect a signal, which was not a normal signal, of a plane flying in the direction opposite from the MH370 plane," back toward Kuala Lumpur. The plane later turned right, toward Butterworth, a Malaysian city along the Strait of Malacca. The radar signal was infrequent and did not include any data such as the flight number.

He said he didn't know exactly when Thai radar last detected the plane. Malaysian officials have said Flight 370 was last detected by their own military radar at 2:14 a.m.

The search area for the plane initially focused on the South China Sea, where ships and planes spent a week searching. Pings that a satellite detected from the plane hours after its communications went down have led authorities to concentrate instead on two vast arcs
 
So far, I have only seen any report and diagram of the last satellite ping. I would be interested to know about all of the other hourly satellite pings from the plane. I would think that information from all of the hourly pings can possibly narrow down when heading changes were made. The last known heading of the plan was west. If the final destination of the plane were off Australia or near the border of China, then I would think they would be able to determine where another heading change would have taken place.
 
So far, I have only seen any report and diagram of the last satellite ping. I would be interested to know about all of the other hourly satellite pings from the plane. I would think that information from all of the hourly pings can possibly narrow down when heading changes were made. The last known heading of the plan was west. If the final destination of the plane were off Australia or near the border of China, then I would think they would be able to determine where another heading change would have taken place.

A lot of people feel that way, there have been a number of stories calling for that same data, here's the latest one according to Mr. Google -

Here’s what’s odd about that map of MH370′s final satellite ping

I agree that if the Malaysians were being fully transparent, and if Inmarsat did share all data, and if there were hourly signals, I'm sure we'd all like to see them.

I personally doubt they would tell us very much given their nature but it would be nice to see them. You never know. Maybe - if such data exists - then together with other data, a better idea of the track could be pieced together.

The press said they were hourly signals - we've all seen those reports.

Let's review what Inmarsat actually said:

14 March 2014: Inmarsat has issued the following statement regarding Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

Routine, automated signals were registered on the Inmarsat network from Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 during its flight from Kuala Lumpur.

This information was provided to our partner SITA, which in turn has shared it with Malaysia Airlines.
I think the press concluded that because a normal system would ping on the hour, MH370 did.

Maybe it did - but we do not know that.

I'd like to believe that US officials at least have contacted them for further disclosures.

Here's who Inmarsat is - About us - Inmarsat

Edit/PS - here's my problem with the hourly satellite data claims:

The last transmission was said to be received at 8:11 AM Malaysia time.

The plane took off at 12:40 AM.

What is 8:11 AM an hourly anniversary of?
 
Again, I'm nowhere versed in all this stuff, I just like to ask questions along the way. It's been posted a bunch of times that radar picked something up. It seems to me that some "experts" are jumping to the conclusion that the "something" is what's missing. Aren't their phanom blips on radar? Don't large flocks of birds sometimes get picked up on radar? Could an unregistered flight from small aircraft be responsible for some of these radar hits?

If I'm wrong on all or any of that, let me know, but it seems these radar contacts, with many things in this case, are going straight from the state of collected data to confirmed fact without getting a full dose of scrutiny.

Edit: ninja'd by EM.:o
 
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