Well the truth of it is flash is out dated and HTML 5 is way better. Once it catches on it will be good
Unfortunately, once fragmentation of HTML5 sets in, it will probably revive Flash and other technologies perceived as outdated because of claims that a new paradigm being ushered in would be unified and would render everything else obsolete, just like previous attempts to unify proved to be equally (un)successful... think C++ (write once, compile anywhere), Java (write once, run everywhere, etc...)
If previous HTML versions were fragmented by individual companies with their own tweaks to encourage more market share for themselves, why would HTML5 be any different in the end? It won't be, and "freedom to innovate" will be the usual and predictable excuse to stray from this fledgling "open standard".
The only constant is change...I did a quick google search and, despite a lot of red herring articles, some valid ones are already popping up about HTML5 fragmentation... and not all browsers support what still isn't an official standard yet... even when it becomes official, fragmentation is still going to be an issue... the red herring ones claiming Android will cause HTML5's standard to accelerate or how Android is causing the HTML5 fragmentation, or how Android is fragmented due to all the devices out there... not many about HTML5 being fragmented by companies to ensure their market share increases despite HTML5 being an "open standard"...
