rui-no-onna
Android Enthusiast
Currently have an Xperia Active as my "outdoors" phone.This thread should give you an idea as to how often a phone gets dropped:
http://androidforums.com/samsung-galaxy-s/163396-dropped-galaxy-s-water.html

Xperia Active CrAsh Test! INCREDIBLE, AMAZING!!! - YouTube
Sony Ericsson Xperia Active While Underwater and Swimming - YouTube
I do have plenty of fallback phones (including a couple of Motorola SLVRs) in case I lose/damage my phone while I'm not yet eligible for upgrade. It's all about risk assessment and whether you have enough funds to easily cover paying for a replacement phone.