Railroadmaster
Member
Well I guess Apple's os is so much better.
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People don't buy phones based on OS. The iPhone is not about an OS but an 'eco-system.' Bottom line, that is what matters. People don't buy a phone because it can have a diffent skin or widget.
They are buying phones for reasons like using Facebook on their phone at work to kill time. Or some people buy phones based on the ability to wifi hot-spot.
Part of the lure of the 'eco-system' is the ease-of-use,ease-of-consumption, and the 'ease-of-available apps'
That goes along the Window argument you make. Windows dominant popularity is based on the app availability. This is why iOS will continue to be popular.
People are already learning that these apps, which often cost money, are just stripped down versions of what you can do with a normal web browser, and the internet experience on android starting with 2.2 will hands down dominate iOs's poor iteration of it.
History disagrees with you. ..
But I digress. Here are these platforms, and I feel the most action will be netween winmo7 and android. 5 years from now, I'm willing to bet apples market share will be cut in half in the smartphone segment.
They (Pocket PC) had this in 2005. They had everything you stated in quotes. Yet, Pocket PC is dead. It has nowhere the market share or revenues as the iPhone or even current Android. Window Mobile is dead compared to iOS. Why didn't it work then? And why do you assume it will work in 2011-2015? See why empirical reasoning is flawed?Winmo7 will probably take the enterprise market by storm, given they execute properly. Business users generally could give a rats ass about apps or games. They need email, and messaging, productivity, and organization
People are already learning that these apps, which often cost money, are just stripped down versions of what you can do with a normal web browser, and the internet experience on android starting with 2.2 will hands down dominate iOs's poor iteration of it.
**** the apps, give me a real web experience while on the go, and make it speedy.
Look you don't realize that mobile devices at there core are small computers. Just that mobile are less powerful than desktop computers and usually have a finger/stylus input as apposed to the input of a mouse and courser and mobile devices usually run on arm/mips/xscale as apposed to x86/powerpc. Also something that is different there is no Microsoft or one company that controls the mobile market. History would like disagree with you example Microsoft Windows has one of the clunkiest and ugliest interfaces and yet it still controls over 90% of the market. Why did Windows succeed because it had cheaper computers, better hardware, generally cheaper, and adopted by multiple oems. Nokia phones for example are always heavily criticized for there user interface yet Nokia has a world wide market share of nearly 40% which is only decreasing because rival manufacturers can sell phone in markets where Nokia can't. Now lets look at Android it is outselling iPhones in the United States why because Android devices are available in, multiple shapes and sizes, multiple carriers, generally cheaper, and adoption by multiple oems. So history would disagree it not who has the best ecosystem and user experience but its who has the larger amount devices on the market. Windows Mobile failed because of lack of compelling devices usually all of the flagship devices were Android devices and not Windows Mobile. The only good Windows Mobile devices were the HTC Hd2 and the HTC Touch Pro 2 towards the platforms demise.If you are going to use historical anologies, you are in for a dissapointment. History back in the Desktop days did not have one thing you neglect and that is the iTune Store.
The whole foundation of my argument is based on the eco-system.
Furthermore, your argument is based on empirical inherintance. You assume the Mac loss markteshare in the 80s, they will lose again w/ phones. This type of empirical analysis is short-sighted and I'll show how the logic is flawed. This is how debates and court-room trials are lost.
They (Pocket PC) had this in 2005. They had everything you stated in quotes. Yet, Pocket PC is dead. It has nowhere the market share or revenues as the iPhone or even current Android. Window Mobile is dead compared to iOS. Why didn't it work then? And why do you assume it will work in 2011-2015? See why empirical reasoning is flawed?
By your own reasoning, pocket pc lost in the late 90s so they will lose again because history disagrees with your quote. See, I am using the same empirical logic you just made. See why it is flawed?
Using your train of thought, we can look back at history in the mobile-device genre. And history agrees with me. The eco-system, the content-delivery (be it music, books, movies,or software) is the new way of doing business.
Microsoft & Palm had a 10 year lead over iOS. 10 years. 10 years of Office integration (Pocket Word/Excel and the like). 10 years of corporate institutionalized use for their mobile devices,pdas, smartphones,and smartbooks.
MS was heavily entrenched in business use. Yet, they were dethroned in less than 2 years which is extremely remarkable. And the sole reason for death of Windows Mobile Classic is the new paradigm - the eco-system.
In less than 2 years, iOS killed Pocket PC and we already know what happen Palm.
Microsoft, HP, Toshiba had 10 years of selling convertible tablet pcs. Apple,in less than 2 months sold over 3 million iPads; prompting CEO Steve Ballmer to say something to the effect he didn't wish they sell as much (See Gizmodo/Engadget for quotes). Demand hasn't stopped. Analysts predict 10 million in tablet sales this year. Personally, I am very, very surprise of the iPad. I would never have thought they would sell that many but then again, the iPad cost as much as the original white 5GB iPod. We all know what that 5GB iPod did...
Unlike you, I am using historical context more relavant to smart phones/mobile devices (than your desktop computer example). My example is a bit more germane and within domain scope.
Now, looking at the future:
Microsoft isn't stupid (or at least I try to give them credit). They're trying to out-do the Apple model and I think they have a chance with the xbox tie in, locking down the hardware spec to prevent fragmentation.
They even omitted copy-n-paste and side-loading of apps because it boils down the experience.
In 2007-2008, we had the same thing we have now in 2010. Microsoft phones - HTC Touch HD, Samsung had better hardware than the iPhone. They had features not yet available on iPhone. Superior screens and faster processors.
Yet, they failed at one thing -- the user experience. Microsoft is trying to rectify their mistake with Pocket Pc and Windows Mobile. They at least can acknowledge iPhone's strengths and formidity.
Microsoft's Win7 Exec Belafornte is probably more attuned on market conditions than the both of us so MS is clearly taking a different approach.
I'll agree Android has traction. Win7 has potential. It has Zune and Xbox so it may knock Android out in terms of users who want an entertainment centric device. I actually think Win7 will leapfrog real quick just because of XBOX.
Yet,as we already know, Microsoft's superior monthly subscription based zune marketplace still failed and trailled behind the iTune store. Again, using historical reference.
We are at a juncture that is exciting for consumers. All the platforms will survive and offer consumer choices. Unlike you, I'm not ready to make predictions. The internet archives things and I don't want to be wrong 3-4 years down the line.
People panned the original 5GB white ipod. People panned the 2007 iPhone. People panned the 2010 iPad.
We shouldn't be making 2015 predictions because we already know what happen to all those Windows Mobile blogs and sites... Dead. Bye Bye Mobility.com. Bye Bye AximCentral....
Commander Taco's scathing pan of the original iPod on slashdot is still an major embarrassment for that site. I hope you weren't one of those HTC Touch Pro2 owners who predicted the death of Apple in 2009.
So in sum, this reply can easily be summarized by one thing --- you underestimate the power of the iTune store and the whole eco-system train of thought. It help killed Palm. It killed Windows Mobile classic. It help leapfrog the iPad into sales no predecessor tablet have ever achieved.
You are seriously misinform if you think the successful apps are 'web wrappers'. JooJoo or whatever the company name made the same mistake when he made that comment and panned the iPad.
You're just making assumptions. Have you done any market research to back up your claims. Have you looked at the tracking.
Uuugh, I guess you have no idea of which apps really sell and which don't. The apps that are just "web-launchers" with an icon are not the ones that move the platform. The $10-20 games in immersive 3D are hot. Photo apps that sell by the dozen sell. Apps that allow you to edit videos sell. Apps like geocaching sells. Apps like i-Am-sam which are karaoke apps are the top grossing apps. Apps that have add-on packs are not fetching web-pages.
People are buying everything that can't be done in a web-browser.
If you care to read the many recent Android articles about spam in the marketplace and the lack of developers making money in Android, you can guess the current state. All the article's I've read stem from this very site and sister site-Phandroid.
Android Developers are spamming the market so they can make advertising revenues. Many of them aren't making any money so we have duplicates and duplicates of really bad apps. Meanwhile, developers on the iTune store are making with the new iAd system. iOs customers, on average tend to spend more money on apps.
I would seriously study the revenue, # of downloads, the number of developers, and health of the respective eco-systems before I start making predictions on who will win or lose in 2015.
Everyone talks about this imaginary grandma. You don't pay all this money for an unlimited data plan if you just want to use it as a feature phone. You get a smartphone because you want to do more.
When Apple says iPhone has tons of apps, that makes the phone much more complex. They could have stuck with the original formula of safari and some other Apple apps and everything would be nice and simple. But people can handle complexity because they like lots of choices. They adapt. Look at the web: nobody follows any consistent HIG and yet websites are much more popular than native apps on the PC. Do you know anyone who still uses a native email client to check their email?
I, for one, enjoy the discourse. Both sides make compelling arguments.
Mrsppedmaster is allowed to speak his mind...
Look you don't realize that mobile devices at there core are small computers. Just that mobile are less powerful than desktop computers and usually have a finger/stylus input as apposed to the input of a mouse and courser and mobile devices usually run on arm/mips/xscale as apposed to x86/powerpc. Also something that is different there is no Microsoft or one company that controls the mobile market. History would like disagree with you example Microsoft Windows has one of the clunkiest and ugliest interfaces and yet it still controls over 90% of the market. Why did Windows succeed because it had cheaper computers, better hardware, generally cheaper, and adopted by multiple oems. Nokia phones for example are always heavily criticized for there user interface yet Nokia has a world wide market share of nearly 40% which is only decreasing because rival manufacturers can sell phone in markets where Nokia can't. Now lets look at Android it is outselling iPhones in the United States why because Android devices are available in, multiple shapes and sizes, multiple carriers, generally cheaper, and adoption by multiple oems. So history would disagree it not who has the best ecosystem and user experience but its who has the larger amount devices on the market. Windows Mobile failed because of lack of compelling devices usually all of the flagship devices were Android devices and not Windows Mobile. The only good Windows Mobile devices were the HTC Hd2 and the HTC Touch Pro 2 towards the platforms demise.
If you are going to use historical anologies, you are in for a dissapointment.
Agreed. Mr SpeedMaster is one of the few Apple fans who come here who actually use facts and varying degrees of logic & common sense to back his arguments/debates.
Thanks for the compliment but I think I am going to avoid appe/iphone vs google/android debates for a while.
I am immensely enjoying my Samsung Galaxy S right now. I can't say the same for my other Android devices. Especially for the price I got my Sammie for.
I'm really glad to hear that. I'm hoping ALL the kinks get worked out by time I'm ready to pick up the EPIC 4G. Actually, it should have froyo 2.2 loaded as well. Have you experienced any of that App lag people have been talking about?
I heard about the lag but no experience with it besides the bad GPS. This could be a batch issue. I run Launcher Pro on all my phones coz I like to use it in Landscape mode.
It is definitely faster than the EVO 4G (once had) and Incredible I currently have.
Why do you have so many phones?
I'm developing an Android app. I didn't want to get another phone but I got the Galaxy S at an unbelievable deal no-contract, no commitment.
Let just say it was a better deal than what K-Mart is offering on their Android device. With GSM, I can swap out the SIM and use it between my iPhone. So there is no added cost to me to use the device.
The other phones are work issued.
Agreed. Mr SpeedMaster is one of the few Apple fans who come here who actually use facts and varying degrees of logic & common sense to back his arguments/debates.
How about this - no subfolders for video either. I want to be able to load complete seasons of Family Guy, House, etc. Guess what? I can't. More accurately I can, but finding a particular episode is a total frigging crapshoot as they are all lumped into a giant video directory with my other thousand videos. How come I can't do something as basic as have separate "Family Guy" and "House" directories on my SIX HUNDRED DOLLAR PHONE? Even windows mobile was better than this for media consumption.
How about updating? I'm sick of getting "you have 32 updates available". IT takes me a half hour to update the damn apps, every other day. How come there is no "update all" button, or an option to automatically update ever night at 3AM?
I'm a die hard android lover and Apple hater (ex windows mobile user) and I can't understand the hate towards mrspeedmaster. He is being extremely patient, logical, reasonable, and making very intelligent arguments. Further, he is 100% correct on many of his points.
Those of you attacking him are just as bad as the worst apple fanboy.
I am quite "techy", one might say. I've been building computers for a decade, have used both water and modified phase change cooling (built by chilly1 on xtremesystems back in the day) to get my CPU down to negative 60C, was into WinMo rom development, etc, etc, etc. Let me make this clear - I feel Android is the most exciting development in smartphone history. That being said, there are certain things about it that make me stare at my phone and say "How the hell can Google be so stupid".
Whether you like to admit it or not, major annoyances and weaknesses (lack of polish, some might say) exist in the Android operating system - weaknesses that simply should not exist given the resources of Google.
The phone is 100% totally useless for photographs (and I have the Incredible with Sense, it's even worse for vanilla). How the HELL can the phone not recognize folder hierarchy? I have 3000 photographs that I want to keep on my phone, but there IS NO WAY TO ORGANIZE THEM. There is no excuse for that in this day and age. Also, as someone else said, you have to freaking rename all of your photos if you wish to organize them within a folder. Totally unacceptable.
As far as music goes, the stock player (and the HTC sense player) are buggy with ID3 tags. IF you have a large classical collection such as myself that heavily relies on ID3 tags, you're screwed. The third party apps for editing them on the phone all suck, and there is no way to organize music by folder. Can you believe that? Once again, the freaking OS won't recognize subfolders and folder hierarchy. So for the ID3 tags that the phone reads wrong, it places the music in totally wrong folders and I have NO WAY to change that. Completely ridiculous and a major oversight. I hate Apple, but they never would have let that fly.
How about this - no subfolders for video either. I want to be able to load complete seasons of Family Guy, House, etc. Guess what? I can't. More accurately I can, but finding a particular episode is a total frigging crapshoot as they are all lumped into a giant video directory with my other thousand videos. How come I can't do something as basic as have separate "Family Guy" and "House" directories on my SIX HUNDRED DOLLAR PHONE? Even windows mobile was better than this for media consumption.
How about updating? I'm sick of getting "you have 32 updates available". IT takes me a half hour to update the damn apps, every other day. How come there is no "update all" button, or an option to automatically update ever night at 3AM?
That being said, these are all issues that will be fixed. Froyo will take care of some of it hopefully, but in time Android will reign supreme I believe.
But if you think it's as intuitive to use as Apple, you're dreaming (as much as it pains me to say that).