That'll be a tough one to answer. Samsung's track record on the Galaxy S series has given each phone 1 official update. If it does get JB, it'll be a long while. I'm sure once 4.1 has hit AOSP, there'll be ROMs in no time if you're willing to root.
After running JB on my Nexus for a week, I promise you'll absolutely love it. Project Butter really is that....buttery smooth scrolling!
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