So by verizon's reasoning early could mean anything up to the middle of the year. Plus, that statement was made before ICS was even released to them. One of the head guys for android already said that the transition to ICS is much more involved than the one to GB. They were probably using the GB transition as a model for long it'd take for ICS.
Like I said before, I doubt we'll see ICS before the Inc4G LTE launches (supposedly by the end of May) so it shouldn't be too much longer. As long as they get ICS out by the end of June, in Verizon's eyes, they're still on schedule. Don't get me wrong, I want ICS on my phone also, but it seems like people go overboard everytime an OS update comes out, like their phone will be completely different. Usually it's pretty much the same as before, there always seems to be a feeling of letdown after the update finally arrives.
I also think most people don't firmly grasp what a complete OS revision entails as far as making it work for each phone. I know xda gets updates out quicker than OEMs, but they invariably come with bugs that, if the OEM's version came out like that, they'd be villified for quality control. Add Verizon's layer of quality control on top of it, and it's a long wait. We've already seen 3 leaks come out, and each time a new one appears, figure adding 2 weeks to a month before we could see an OTA update. Assuming we don't see another leak, we shouldn't be too far off.