This is how smartphones will replace computers

[ZDroid1]

In the near future, this is how things will be:

Computers and laptops won't exist, only smartphones.

We will have desktop and laptop DOCKING stations that we can plug our phones into. Those stations will have no computing or storage or networking capabilities. They will only contain a keyboard, a mouse or touch pad, and a viewing monitor. They will simply receive input from the user and send it to the phone, and display or sound the output.

Such docking stations will exist at home, school, work, airports and other public places.

 

[Tangent]

I don't think it'll go that way anytime soon personally. The biggest reason is the cost of miniaturization. When given the choice between spending an extra couple of hundred on a smaller device or a faster one with much higher capacity, smaller will lose for most applications. This is why desktop computers are pretty much the same size they've always been. There's no huge pressure to make them smaller, but there IS huge pressure to make them faster and increase storage space. Smartphones will eventually reach the power of today's desktops, but by then desktops will be hugely more powerful.

 

[grainysand]

Quite, and there will always be demanding, processor and most importantly graphics intensive operations that demand big, powerful computers. I don't think smartphones will reach point where they can handle those things while remaining affordable any time soon. Even now, laptops with high specs are still too expensive compared to their desktop equivalent. And still have heat problems.

 

[QXQ]

I'm going to sound a bit like a broken record here, but this will actually be kinda cool.

I've been trying to get a phone that can essentially run an app on my powerful desktop at home, and all the smartphone has to do is process the GUI. Here is a small demo of me using GIMP to run some filters that I doubt many smartphones could run in realtime:
YouTube - X11GimpFinal0001_5288.avi

The idea that we could pay for a private cloud, or (in my case) use a single or set of personally owned nodes, all controlled remotely by a portable internet device seems rather utilitarian to me. It's what I've been shooting at for a while. You still have the same raw computing power at your hands, and with the right tools, latency can be reduced (Like using X11 versus VNC).

Of course, being a tech geek, I know I enjoy my experience. I have multiple 24" monitors, a mouse with 13 buttons, and enjoy having a full sized keyboard with a numpad. Having a "station" overcomes some of these issues, but how would you standardize that? At the end of the day, I'd still do my best most detailed work sitting at my desk with my Tower right next to me.

 

[NYdroid33]

I dont kno if thats the way its going to work but I would like to see an android OS for pc or mac... I guess it would virtually be the same thing as an iPad but id like to see something like that with a keyboard, web cam, etc... I think apps in general are going to soon take over a lot of things

 

[Deleted User]

How would I conduct my business? Would a smartphone be able to run a Pro Tools HD system and still allow me to have the DSP cards to prevent any CPU power loss from the phone?

I don't see the need for a powerful MacPro Tower or MacBook Pro going away anytime soon for what I do.

 

[QXQ]

How would I conduct my business? Would a smartphone be able to run a Pro Tools HD system and still allow me to have the DSP cards to prevent any CPU power loss from the phone?

Read my earlier post.

The phone doesn't have to do the work, the phone can simply be the interface device.

 

[Deleted User]

Read my earlier post.

The phone doesn't have to do the work, the phone can simply be the interface device.

Having a "private" cloud or my own server/nodes does not seem like the best idea for me.

When recording audio, I can not trust an internet connection to write that data to some cloud.

Perhaps I don't understand enough about what you are saying though.

 

[QXQ]

Having a "private" cloud or my own server/nodes does not seem like the best idea for me.

When recording audio, I can not trust an internet connection to write that data to some cloud.

Perhaps I don't understand enough about what you are saying though.

My point is, you may do the recording on sight, but does the actual editing need to be done on sight? I'm not sure what sort of audio production you do, so it may not make any practical sense at all. But you record using your station in person, then maybe edit a few tracks while sitting on a bus heading somewhere else. The idea that I bring up, is that you're essentially less tied down to your station, but there are still things you may need to do in person.

I know I have some much time during my day where I wish I could be being productive. Riding on a Bus, waiting in an office, walking down the street, etc.

 

[DKYang]

Smartphone will never replace computers because they are not powerful enough. Until I see powerful smartphones, I don't see it happening.

 

[Intervenient]

We will have desktop and laptop DOCKING stations that we can plug our phones into. Those stations will have no computing or storage or networking capabilities. They will only contain a keyboard, a mouse or touch pad, and a viewing monitor. They will simply receive input from the user and send it to the phone, and display or sound the output.

I really like the sound of this. I'll make a mock up:

Looks neat huh?




In all seriousness, while it's a novel idea, that seems like adding extra steps to do what we already do. I do believe that smart phones will play more of a role in the business world, but desktops and laptops will always be a part of it.

 

[Deleted User]

My point is, you may do the recording on sight, but does the actual editing need to be done on sight? I'm not sure what sort of audio production you do, so it may not make any practical sense at all. But you record using your station in person, then maybe edit a few tracks while sitting on a bus heading somewhere else. The idea that I bring up, is that you're essentially less tied down to your station, but there are still things you may need to do in person.

I know I have some much time during my day where I wish I could be being productive. Riding on a Bus, waiting in an office, walking down the street, etc.

The thought of being able to edit tracks or tune vocals away from the studio on a phone or tablet would actually be very useful! I'm liking this.

Dumbed down, the phone or tablet would basically be a controller dictating commands to my "station", right?

 

[PhoenixFx]

For simple tasks you can do it even now. There are Bluetooth Keyboards you can pair with your phone and there are phones capable of outputting very high resolutions to external displays. Soon some people might start using it that way, or maybe like a dumb terminal/thin client.

But they will NOT replace larger computers anytime soon. Because I dont think smartphones will get enough processing power to meet desktop computing needs in the foreseeable future. Sure, a Smartphone in couple of years might have the same power as a core series desktop we have today, but by that time desktops will have much more power, and I’m sure there will be applications needing all that power. Not to mention the servers.

Unless someone makes a breakthrough and come up with some sort if an advanced quantum computing chip or some bizarre high performance low energy processor that is.

 

[PhoenixFx]

For those who are interested in accessing your desktop/laptop computer remotely you can use a remote desktop client like this

 

[ari-free]

I don't think it'll go that way anytime soon personally. The biggest reason is the cost of miniaturization. When given the choice between spending an extra couple of hundred on a smaller device or a faster one with much higher capacity, smaller will lose for most applications. This is why desktop computers are pretty much the same size they've always been. There's no huge pressure to make them smaller, but there IS huge pressure to make them faster and increase storage space. Smartphones will eventually reach the power of today's desktops, but by then desktops will be hugely more powerful.

The pc market is stagnant. It's basically an Intel dominated world with some space for AMD. But in the smartphone world, we have a much cleaner slate. There's much more competition since it is much easier to license ARM. Nobody can afford to just sit back, come up with slightly better tech and let the $$$ just roll in.

 

[ari-free]

I'm going to sound a bit like a broken record here, but this will actually be kinda cool.

I've been trying to get a phone that can essentially run an app on my powerful desktop at home, and all the smartphone has to do is process the GUI. Here is a small demo of me using GIMP to run some filters that I doubt many smartphones could run in realtime:
YouTube - X11GimpFinal0001_5288.avi

The idea that we could pay for a private cloud, or (in my case) use a single or set of personally owned nodes, all controlled remotely by a portable internet device seems rather utilitarian to me. It's what I've been shooting at for a while. You still have the same raw computing power at your hands, and with the right tools, latency can be reduced (Like using X11 versus VNC).

Of course, being a tech geek, I know I enjoy my experience. I have multiple 24" monitors, a mouse with 13 buttons, and enjoy having a full sized keyboard with a numpad. Having a "station" overcomes some of these issues, but how would you standardize that? At the end of the day, I'd still do my best most detailed work sitting at my desk with my Tower right next to me.

I would like to do all kinds of image processing, 3D, etc but the UI would have to be completely different on a smartphone. Blender's UI is bad enough on a PC, let alone a phone. But you know what it would mean? Any time you come up with a creative idea, no matter where you are, you just take your phone out of your pocket and sketch out a rough draft so that you don't forget. Later, when you are at your pc, you can polish it up.

Wouldn't be cool to have your phone next to your bed so when you wake up from an interesting dream, you can recreate it on your phone?

 

[ari-free]

How would I conduct my business? Would a smartphone be able to run a Pro Tools HD system and still allow me to have the DSP cards to prevent any CPU power loss from the phone?

I don't see the need for a powerful MacPro Tower or MacBook Pro going away anytime soon for what I do.

no, but it could replace the iMac for casual surfing and email. People would just lie back on their couch holding a nice, light phone instead of sitting in front of a big screen just to buy something from amazon or post on androidforums.com.

 

[ZDroid1]

My last desktop died last year and I never replaced it and never will. And I'm a software developer. My laptop cost me 400 bucks.

I don't understand your responses here. This phone has a 1Ghz processor. It wasn't that long ago that the most powerful PC had that processor. How can you be sure the phone will never catch up?

The vast majority of people don't want or need the most powerful PC anyway. Facebook and MS Word don't need that much processing power.

 

[wayrad]

We will have desktop and laptop DOCKING stations that we can plug our phones into.

I think you may have reinvented the Palm Foleo, only with a wired connection.

 

[Anthony1]

I don't understand your responses here. This phone has a 1Ghz processor. It wasn't that long ago that the most powerful PC had that processor. How can you be sure the phone will never catch up?

The phone will never catch up because in order to do so the desktop computer will need to stand still for a few years. It won't

 

[takeshi]

I don't think it'll go that way anytime soon personally. The biggest reason is the cost of miniaturization.

I doubt this will happen unless there's standardization of the docking connector. I mean, consider how often phones are replaced. My phone is less than a year old. By comparison, my laptops and desktop are well over 5 years old. I'm not buying expensive docking accessories every 1-2 years.

How can you be sure the phone will never catch up?

The desktop, and even the laptop, can have much better cooling capabilities which means they can always push the silicon to run faster.

 

[ZDroid1]

The phone will never catch up because in order to do so the desktop computer will need to stand still for a few years. It won't

I think we will reach certain speeds where the difference will become irrelevant for the common usages.

 

[ZDroid1]

I doubt this will happen unless there's standardization of the docking connector. I mean, consider how often phones are replaced. My phone is less than a year old. By comparison, my laptops and desktop are well over 5 years old. I'm not buying expensive docking accessories every 1-2 years.

First of all, smartphones are changing so fast because they're a new technology.

Second of all, a standard of connectivity has already emerged: USB, both for charging and data connectivity.

How can you say you will need new docking accessories every 1-2 years? Keyboards and mice don't change that much, that fast.

 

[Tangent]

...
I don't understand your responses here. This phone has a 1Ghz processor. It wasn't that long ago that the most powerful PC had that processor. How can you be sure the phone will never catch up?

Like I said, they'll catch up to current PC speeds, but by then PCs will have moved on to tremendously higher speeds. My first computer had a 333MHz Pentium 2 processor, 64MB RAM, and 4.3GB hard drive. If you would have told me that just 13 years later it would take 3 times the processor speed, 32 times the RAM, and 5 times the hard drive space, just to run the OS I'd be using (Win7 64) at minimum requirements I would have thought you were completely out of your mind.

Processor development will keep going as it always has: Make the current power levels available in smaller form factors, and make current form factors faster.

The vast majority of people don't want or need the most powerful PC anyway. Facebook and MS Word don't need that much processing power.

I agree with you on the "need" part, not on the "want" part. I'm constantly trying to convince people that the reason their 2-3 year old computer feels slow is because Windows has gotten bloated from all the programs they've installed and that if they let me wipe it and do a fresh install it will be just as fast as it was when new. Most people just don't want to hear that and instead ask me for advice about which is the faster between machine x and y so they don't have to wait so long for their machine to boot up. They also can't be convinced that it's the difference between our 20+ Mb connection and their 1 Mb home connection that makes pages load slower for them, not that their PC is too hopelessly outdated to handle today's websites...

 

[grainysand]

The vast majority of people don't want or need the most powerful PC anyway. Facebook and MS Word don't need that much processing power.

Gamers and the PC gaming industry may have something to say about that. Not the "vast majority" of users, no, but it is quite a sizable industry that'll never translate very well to smartphones.

Your scenario would be possible only if magically everyone ceased all production of PC technology, stopped trying to make the next fastest GPU/HDD/processor. Only then will smartphones catch up with desktops.