This is how smartphones will replace computers

[QXQ]

Dumbed down, the phone or tablet would basically be a controller dictating commands to my "station", right?

Pretty much. The station does the work, your phone just has the interface running (that is, the graphical stuff you can see).

For those who are interested in accessing your desktop/laptop computer remotely you can use a remote desktop client like this

It's VNC. That pretty much means, rather than having a small portion of the App run locally on your phone (like the interface), the entire app is run at home, and your computer literally takes JPEG pictures multiple times a second and sends them to your phone. It can really easily get laggy, and it also means there is going to be a large resolution difference, unless you always set your home computers resolution down before you leave.

I would like to do all kinds of image processing, 3D, etc but the UI would have to be completely different on a smartphone. Blender's UI is bad enough on a PC, let alone a phone.

That's a matter of personal preference. Have you at least seen 2.5? Blender already has options for emulating 3 button mice with only one button (although it would be great if we could get that outside of blender, so ctrl and shift could be used).

That said, I had a difficult time using GIMP on a phone simply because the UI is rather large, and has no method for scrolling. It is a GTK app, so editing the UI for smaller resolution touch screens wouldn't be nearly as hard as changing Blenders UI.

Wouldn't be cool to have your phone next to your bed so when you wake up from an interesting dream, you can recreate it on your phone?

Exactly. It's about being productive where ever you happen to be, and never losing a great idea, or a moment to make an improvement.

 

[opticalshadow]

computers will never go away because a phone will never be able to have the best of anything. no matter how well we make things smaller we can make a better one if we had more room, and gamers, designers, people who dont want to use a 4 inch screen to view things (yeah you can buy a monitor to go with tyour phone, or a laptop that has one already)

i think phones will take over a few things from computers, but they wont take out computers, not even close.

 

[ari-free]

Gamers and the PC gaming industry may have something to say about that. Not the "vast majority" of users, no, but it is quite a sizable industry that'll never translate very well to smartphones.

Your scenario would be possible only if magically everyone ceased all production of PC technology, stopped trying to make the next fastest GPU/HDD/processor. Only then will smartphones catch up with desktops.

But much gaming has shifted from the PC to the game console and those things stay the same in cpu/gpu power for years

 

[ari-free]

Like I said, they'll catch up to current PC speeds, but by then PCs will have moved on to tremendously higher speeds. My first computer had a 333MHz Pentium 2 processor, 64MB RAM, and 4.3GB hard drive. If you would have told me that just 13 years later it would take 3 times the processor speed, 32 times the RAM, and 5 times the hard drive space, just to run the OS I'd be using (Win7 64) at minimum requirements I would have thought you were completely out of your mind.

Processor development will keep going as it always has: Make the current power levels available in smaller form factors, and make current form factors faster.



I agree with you on the "need" part, not on the "want" part. I'm constantly trying to convince people that the reason their 2-3 year old computer feels slow is because Windows has gotten bloated from all the programs they've installed and that if they let me wipe it and do a fresh install it will be just as fast as it was when new. Most people just don't want to hear that and instead ask me for advice about which is the faster between machine x and y so they don't have to wait so long for their machine to boot up. They also can't be convinced that it's the difference between our 20+ Mb connection and their 1 Mb home connection that makes pages load slower for them, not that their PC is too hopelessly outdated to handle today's websites...

But if windows is slowing the PC down then it could be possible for a phone, running a lighter OS, to be faster even with a slower cpu.

 

[ari-free]

That's a matter of personal preference. Have you at least seen 2.5? Blender already has options for emulating 3 button mice with only one button (although it would be great if we could get that outside of blender, so ctrl and shift could be used).

It's still in beta, right? I'll check it out but the thing about Blender and pretty much all 3D design tools is that they require a really big monitor to display everything. That part is acceptable to 3d designers, who work with several large displays. But it will require a massive UI change if it will be used on a small screen.

 

[grainysand]

But much gaming has shifted from the PC to the game console and those things stay the same in cpu/gpu power for years

PC gaming sales figures are still going strong and people have been screaming that it's dying for many, many years. Yet here it is. There're still plenty of reasons to game on the PC over ShitBox 360 or Lolblueray3, like the fact that you may not like your games to look like low-res texture vomit, that you enjoy RTS and FPS (lol lol FPS without mouse/keyboard), and multiplayer access/mods without coughing up $15 for a costume DLC. Last but not least, because consoles have stagnated in specs and most games are multi-platform, you no longer require powerful PCs to game. Buy any modern PC, add some RAM, slap on a decent GPU and it's now a capable gaming rig.

Oh yeah, you may have heard of this quaint little company. I hear they're called Blizzard. Stinking rich. Know what they make? PC-exclusives. Then there's little-known digital distribution service, Steam or something. Guess what they offer, and it's not ShitBox titles.

But if windows is slowing the PC down then it could be possible for a phone, running a lighter OS, to be faster even with a slower cpu.

I'm not sure you understand his point. The point isn't that Windows is bloated (sigh) but that any OS, after long use, will become bloated and less efficient. A reformat and reinstall will make any PC faster, whatever OS it runs. FYI, Ubuntu runs like shit on my old laptop while Win7 trucks along pretty well.

 

[Tre Lawrence]

LOL. Never, ever say never. Remember this:

This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.

- Western Union Memo, 1878

Remember, just because we cannot envision it, doesn't mean it is impossible. Ten years ago, few people would believe we could do the things we do on "phones" today.

 

[Tangent]

But if windows is slowing the PC down then it could be possible for a phone, running a lighter OS, to be faster even with a slower cpu.

My point was less about Windows slowing down the PC than the person believing they needed a faster machine just for their basic tasks. Just a wild unscientific guess, but I'd say at least 30% of new computer purchases are made by people under the mistaken impression that their 2-year-old machine is simply too slow to do web browsing and word processing anymore. Suggesting they replace that "antiquated" machine with one that's got the same specs would seem absurd to them, no matter how much smaller it is.

What I believe has nothing to do with phones not being able to advance far beyond what they can do today. It has to do with PCs being able to advance at the same rate. If in 10 years phones have 5 times the power as they do today, so will PCs. There will also be no shortage of applications that will run great on PCs but would be unusable on a phone with "only" a 5GHz processor and a mere 4TB memory card...

Your idea of a lighter OS makes perfect sense in a logical world. Unfortunately, we live in one were the market demands ever more features and neat visual effects. In not too many years, phones probably will be able to run Win7 64 without a problem. It would just be the equivalent of rooting an Evo to install Windows 95...

 

[ari-free]

My point was less about Windows slowing down the PC than the person believing they needed a faster machine just for their basic tasks. Just a wild unscientific guess, but I'd say at least 30% of new computer purchases are made by people under the mistaken impression that their 2-year-old machine is simply too slow to do web browsing and word processing anymore. Suggesting they replace that "antiquated" machine with one that's got the same specs would seem absurd to them, no matter how much smaller it is.

What I believe has nothing to do with phones not being able to advance far beyond what they can do today. It has to do with PCs being able to advance at the same rate. If in 10 years phones have 5 times the power as they do today, so will PCs. There will also be no shortage of applications that will run great on PCs but would be unusable on a phone with "only" a 5GHz processor and a mere 4TB memory card...

Your idea of a lighter OS makes perfect sense in a logical world. Unfortunately, we live in one were the market demands ever more features and neat visual effects. In not too many years, phones probably will be able to run Win7 64 without a problem. It would just be the equivalent of rooting an Evo to install Windows 95...

My point is that there is no 'market' in the PC world. If Microsoft wants you to have a slow OS then that is what you'll get because what else are you going to get? Linux is disorganized and you are really stuck if you go the mac route.
But in the smartphone world, there is no monopoly for either OS or cpu supplier. It's a whole new ball game. PowerVR's tile based rendering is on the table. Nvidia can make cpu's with the gpu built in the same chip. Think about what they can do. Tegra 2 based on the multi-core A9 is just the beginning.
On the other hand, intel's gpu's are terrible. Like I said before, they think they can get away with it.

Will people dump their pc's? No but they might not be in a such a rush to get new ones and won't use them that often. They might decide they'd have more fun playing games or surfing the web on their couch or anywhere else they want. No, even in my most wildest imagination it won't be as powerful as an overclocked super SLI gaming rig but the cpu/gpu will be 'good enough' and the other factors such as mobility, gps, camera, etc will put it over the top.

 

[IOWA]

In the near future, this is how things will be:

Computers and laptops won't exist, only smartphones.

We will have desktop and laptop DOCKING stations that we can plug our phones into. Those stations will have no computing or storage or networking capabilities. They will only contain a keyboard, a mouse or touch pad, and a viewing monitor. They will simply receive input from the user and send it to the phone, and display or sound the output.

Such docking stations will exist at home, school, work, airports and other public places.

No.. definitely not.

1.) Try photoshopping 4gb PSD's on your phone's processor and RAM, not going to happen.

2.) Heat - Heat syncing only goes so far. Processors can only get so fast before they heat up and die. So they need low power low heat processors that can't even begin to touch a new core i7.

3.) Battery - Do I really need to explain this?

4.) Storage - We are barely getting 32GB memory chips now at an astounding $100 or so per chip. Yet we can buy 2TB drives etc etc

5.)Battery - Felt this needed to be mentioned again.

 

[ZDroid1]

No.. definitely not.

1.) Try photoshopping 4gb PSD's on your phone's processor and RAM, not going to happen.

2.) Heat - Heat syncing only goes so far. Processors can only get so fast before they heat up and die. So they need low power low heat processors that can't even begin to touch a new core i7.

3.) Battery - Do I really need to explain this?

4.) Storage - We are barely getting 32GB memory chips now at an astounding $100 or so per chip. Yet we can buy 2TB drives etc etc

You're simply listing the reasons Smartphones haven't replaced computers TODAY. My original post was a prediction for the future. I think the issues you listed will be resolved then.

The argument that even when the smartphone's capabilities get better, bigger PC's will always surpass them, could have been used to argue against the possibility of a personal computer. Someone in the 60's could have said, "The current computer would fill my living room, and even if we could make a comparable system that sits on a desk, by then the large computer will be even better than that, and nobody will be using the small computer. I mean look how expensive memory is, and storage, and the software wouldn't even fit, and a smaller processor couldn't possibly run an OS, etc." And he would have been technically correct since an array of super computers today possess more power than your desktop computer. But who needs a damn super computer except for the government and some corporations???

Likewise, people would have argued the same way against laptops, since they will never be as powerful as desktops.

The fact is most of us don't need a super computer that would fill their entire living room. A small laptop will do for the vast majority of people. My prediction is that the smartphone will also reach the point where it will fill the common needs of the majority of people. It's just the natural continuation of the evolution of computers (smaller and smaller in size, but more and more powerful). That's always been the trend.

 

[IOWA]

You're simply listing the reasons Smartphones haven't replaced computers TODAY. My original post was a prediction for the future. I think the issues you listed will be resolved then.

The argument that even when the smartphone's capabilities get better, bigger PC's will always surpass them, could have been used to argue against the possibility of a personal computer. Someone in the 60's could have said, "The current computer would fill my living room, and even if we could make a comparable system that sits on a desk, by then the large computer will be even better than that, and nobody will be using the small computer. I mean look how expensive memory is, and storage, and the software wouldn't even fit, and a smaller processor couldn't possibly run an OS, etc." And he would have been technically correct since an array of super computers today possess more power than your desktop computer. But who needs a damn super computer except for the government and some corporations???

Likewise, people would have argued the same way against laptops, since they will never be as powerful as desktops.

The fact is most of us don't need a super computer that would fill their entire living room. A small laptop will do for the vast majority of people. My prediction is that the smartphone will also reach the point where it will fill the common needs of the majority of people. It's just the natural continuation of the evolution of computers (smaller and smaller in size, but more and more powerful). That's always been the trend.

And laptops still aren't nearly as powerful as a desktop.

 

[Tre Lawrence]

You're simply listing the reasons Smartphones haven't replaced computers TODAY. My original post was a prediction for the future. I think the issues you listed will be resolved then.

The argument that even when the smartphone's capabilities get better, bigger PC's will always surpass them, could have been used to argue against the possibility of a personal computer. Someone in the 60's could have said, "The current computer would fill my living room, and even if we could make a comparable system that sits on a desk, by then the large computer will be even better than that, and nobody will be using the small computer. I mean look how expensive memory is, and storage, and the software wouldn't even fit, and a smaller processor couldn't possibly run an OS, etc." And he would have been technically correct since an array of super computers today possess more power than your desktop computer. But who needs a damn super computer except for the government and some corporations???

Likewise, people would have argued the same way against laptops, since they will never be as powerful as desktops.

The fact is most of us don't need a super computer that would fill their entire living room. A small laptop will do for the vast majority of people. My prediction is that the smartphone will also reach the point where it will fill the common needs of the majority of people. It's just the natural continuation of the evolution of computers (smaller and smaller in size, but more and more powerful). That's always been the trend.

I tend to agree...

 

[Intervenient]

The fact is most of us don't need a super computer that would fill their entire living room. A small laptop will do for the vast majority of people. My prediction is that the smartphone will also reach the point where it will fill the common needs of the majority of people. It's just the natural continuation of the evolution of computers (smaller and smaller in size, but more and more powerful). That's always been the trend.

This isn't what your original post said. You said ALL computers will be replaced by these docking stations. Now your posts are basically saying "Big computers will still do the tasks they do today, and smartphones will take the roll of things they already do...just now everything is more difficult because there are no computers".

It's a novel concept, but it's ridiculously far fetched. It's essentially saying we're going to do what we're doing, just making it more complicated.

 

[grainysand]

And laptops still aren't nearly as powerful as a desktop.

And still too expensive for what they don't do.

 

[Tre Lawrence]

And still too expensive for what they don't do.

Very pertinent point.

 

[IOWA]

Then how do you plan on making these magical phones with processors that don't kill the battery in 5 min, and dissipate the heat enough to match todays standards? Computers are becoming home media stations, and are being further embedded into our lives.

The heat sync problem alone would hold us back, not to mention the blocks on bios chips already reaching as fast as they can go without melting the gold on the circuit board.

 

[thaden0]

This maybe more true then people think. People right now are hooked on processor power. But the fact is, we were running word processors and simple games on much weaker processors then the snap dragon we have in our phones not very long ago.

So, lets define "replace". You see, most computing is not high end games.. its browsing, spreadsheets, word processors.. etc etc.. infact, almost all things are becoming web based cloud based now, atleast starting.

So, games you say? Well, for one, games are already heavily dominated by console systems. But, there are games we love on the PC, especially MMOs. Well, enter On-Live. Take the stress off the client and put it all on the server.. we are talking future after all not present after all, but not to distant future. Add this technology too things like googles super ISP lines and it becomes more resposive, higher res and all around quite practical. The tech would work with more then just games and resource intensive processes can be done server side. It also has a certain efficency to it, no upgrading your PC every 6 years.. no need to worry if your video card can handle that game you like. And also, the processing power is never wasted.. if you stop playing a game to goto bed, that person across the world is just getting up and will be using it.

The whole idea of needing processing power is what we need to look at. Once we get over that little hump, everything else makes sense.

 

[IOWA]

This maybe more true then people think. People right now are hooked on processor power. But the fact is, we were running word processors and simple games on much weaker processors then the snap dragon we have in our phones not very long ago.

So, lets define "replace". You see, most computing is not high end games.. its browsing, spreadsheets, word processors.. etc etc.. infact, almost all things are becoming web based cloud based now, atleast starting.

So, games you say? Well, for one, games are already heavily dominated by console systems. But, there are games we love on the PC, especially MMOs. Well, enter On-Live. Take the stress off the client and put it all on the server.. we are talking future after all not present after all, but not to distant future. Add this technology too things like googles super ISP lines and it becomes more resposive, higher res and all around quite practical. The tech would work with more then just games and resource intensive processes can be done server side. It also has a certain efficency to it, no upgrading your PC every 6 years.. no need to worry if your video card can handle that game you like. And also, the processing power is never wasted.. if you stop playing a game to goto bed, that person across the world is just getting up and will be using it.

The whole idea of needing processing power is what we need to look at. Once we get over that little hump, everything else makes sense.

People didn't do what they were able to do today not long ago. And no worries about video card? Really? Do you know anything about how a computer system works? And I'm sorry, but I'm not about to trust private companies with all of my files. Yeah, no thanks.

 

[Anthony1]

I think we will reach certain speeds where the difference will become irrelevant for the common usages.

The history of computing tends to disagree with you.

 

[thunder9111]

nah, even if my htc desire could do everything my laptop does, i would still use my laptop at home. bigger screen, keyboard, mouse, easier to use.
thats all.

 

[thaden0]

People didn't do what they were able to do today not long ago. And no worries about video card? Really? Do you know anything about how a computer system works? And I'm sorry, but I'm not about to trust private companies with all of my files. Yeah, no thanks.

lol, You may wanna look up what OnLive is so you don't look silly. It does indeed remove the need for high end video cards. Basically, if you can display you tube you can display onlive, and last I checked my phone could infact stream video.

Asnd as far as clod computing goes.. obviously there will be people left behind. There are still people using CRT Televisions but I would still concider them "replaced". Perhaps you do not like cloud computing but thats not just a future tense thing, that part is already very much here. google docs is just one example? Also, if you ever played an MMO (games maybe somthing you can relate to better), your character and what not is all stored on the server.

Google rolls out Apps for Government - Computerworld

Security meets goverment standards, you think its not secure enough for you?

 

[thaden0]

nah, even if my htc desire could do everything my laptop does, i would still use my laptop at home. bigger screen, keyboard, mouse, easier to use.
thats all.

The original post mentioned docks.. as in, big monitors and keyboards So basically your laptop and desktop but 1/4 the cost.

 

[grainysand]

lol, You may wanna look up what OnLive is so you don't look silly. It does indeed remove the need for high end video cards. Basically, if you can display you tube you can display onlive, and last I checked my phone could infact stream video.

I know what OnLive is and I also know it's a rip-off doomed to failure. You don't own games; when you pay them, you only purchase the right to stream, and this right expires if you cancel your account--that is, after a period of time past cancellation (a year?), they ditch your account. Want to subscribe again? You'll have to "buy" the games you got last time all over a second time. The price isn't even attractive.

**** them and the horse they rode in on.

 

[ari-free]

nah, even if my htc desire could do everything my laptop does, i would still use my laptop at home. bigger screen, keyboard, mouse, easier to use.
thats all.

At home?? The laptop was supposed to be a mobile device. But it has already replaced the desktop for many people.
So it's not a big jump to think that the smartphone will replace the laptop for computing on the go. After all, who wants to shlep a laptop everywhere?