UN Libyan Resolution

[cipher6]

The rebels are not a fighting force, just a bunch of pissed off guys with guns, they hardly know how to use. Qaddafi is now hiding his armor and placing it in cities, and moving troops around in civilian trucks and buses, neutralizing NATO's air strikes. NATO can't "do more" because their job, as defined by the UN resolution, has nothing to do with getting rid of Qaddafi or helping rebels.

Like I said, trying to mask Western intervention and regime change under this "humanitarian" mission, will end up prolonging the fight, and increasing the death and destruction, the exact opposite of the goals set out by the UN and Obama.

Its gonna be a long summer, throughout the middle east.

 

[Sak01]

There's no way Qaddafi's forces can be defeated without a ground invasion. The rebel's are too rag tag to do it with close air support alone.

The next moves will be interesting.

 

[cipher6]

If their too disorganized to form an effective fighting group, what would the government they concoct look like?

 

[Sak01]

To be fair to them, forming an effective fighting group requires military training and experience. The majority of the rebels are just ordinary civilians.

 

[cipher6]

To be fair to them, forming an effective fighting group requires military training and experience. The majority of the rebels are just ordinary civilians.

Yeah, thats the problem. Their a rag-tag group of average civilians, and Western powers are trying to hand them control of a country.

Forming a working government and civil society requires training and experience as well...

 

[ElasticNinja]

Yeah, thats the problem. Their a rag-tag group of average civilians, and Western powers are trying to hand them control of a country.

Forming a working government and civil society requires training and experience as well...

there are quite a lot of educated Libyans well versed in bearucrasy at home and abroad who can help
That said, even Benghazi is unorganised atm

 

[cipher6]

there are quite a lot of educated Libyans well versed in bearucrasy at home and abroad who can help
That said, even Benghazi is unorganised atm

There are a some yeah...

An anecdote:
I was reading a story, the reporter was with some rebels on the front lines. One guy was firing his machine gun attached to the back of a truck in the air in celebration.

The reporter asked, "Why are you doing that if they say there is an ammo shortage?"

The rebel responded, "This is my gun."

Point being, even if there are some in the upper ranks with experienced and training that know what their doing, just like there are some experienced and trained military men in the ranks, that doesn't mean that will filter down to others, or that others will accept them as an authority and fall into place.

 

[Sak01]

Yeah, thats the problem. Their a rag-tag group of average civilians, and Western powers are trying to hand them control of a country.

Forming a working government and civil society requires training and experience as well...

A spontaneous rebellion will be disorganised by it's nature and there's no other choice, unfortunately, as anything planned and organised in advance tends to be suppressed by the secret police.

That goes for many of these dictatorships.

 

[ElasticNinja]

NATO has stepped up operations, 4 British Apaches being brought in
Gadaffis Tripoli HQ has been partially destroyed, defended gone

Wonder if NATO and rebels are planning to move on Tripoli

Would be huge casualties...

 

[Sak01]

NATO has stepped up operations, 4 British Apaches being brought in
Gadaffis Tripoli HQ has been partially destroyed, defended gone

Wonder if NATO and rebels are planning to move on Tripoli

Would be huge casualties...

I'm not surprised. The French and co were always hoping for a quick end when they started this which just ain't going to happen without ground troops.

I think they'll plan some kind of lightning quick (blitzkrieg??) operation to be in and out without getting bogged down. And they (UK, France) will most likely have to pull it off without US troops which will make it many times more difficult. I'm sure they know that and are probable worried by the uncertainty of it all.

 

[ElasticNinja]

There are armed European personnel on the ground.. Tripoli is sorrounded from three sides

With the Apaches the rebels will be able to move on Tripoli

Still, huge casualties

Don't see European troops going into ground combat tho

 

[Sak01]

That would fail without European troops imo and I agree with you the casualties would be huge.

 

[ElasticNinja]

I would think that with the Apaches taking out the hidden targets they may get near the suburbs .. the hope is that would frighten the Gadaffi family into submission

It should be remember not too long ago Misrata had Gadaffis forces in its streets.. they are over 50KM away now

They are almost certainly getting European tactical assistance, but unless they start dying in the tens of thousands I don't think Europe will send in ground combat units

 

[noah way]

"An invasion of Libya under a humanitarian mandate would serve the same corporate interests as the 2003 invasion and occupation of Iraq. The underlying objective is to take possession of Libya's oil reserves, destabilize the National Oil Corporation (NOC) and eventually privatize the country's oil industry, namely transfer the control and ownership of Libya's oil wealth into foreign hands.

The planned invasion of Libya, which is already underway is part of the broader "Battle for Oil". Close to 80 percent of Libya

 

[Sak01]

^^^The revolution is real. While I don't doubt that Western nations are only in it for oil, this isn't some grand planned conspiracy playing out before our eyes.

A huge number of Libyans want to be free of the tyrant Gaddafi and they started all this after being inspired by their neighbours. The French, after being burned out of Tunisia with the fall of their chum, Ben Ali, saw America's chum, Mubarak, also fall in Egypt and saw, or thought they saw, the writing on the wall for Gaddafi. So they gambled and before anyone else jumped in recognised the rebels hoping that when they came to power they would repay French good will with oil contracts.

Other countries followed the French lead. Problem is that Gaddafi decided not to follow the script and the French gamble was about to backfire big time - there was no chance Gaddafi would allow Western companies such as Total back in once he had quashed the rebellion and he would have jumped into Russian and Chinese arms instead.

This is why Gaddafi has to go from a Western point of view which coincides with the interests of the rebels to be free of their resident dictator. Had it not been for the French gamble on the rebels things would have continued as before. Gaddafi had already opened up his oilfields to the West and they were happy with the status quo.

 

[noah way]

^^^The revolution is real.

Without a doubt. Just wanted to point out some of the other forces at work. The point being that if it wasn't for oil, Libya would get about as much attention as Somalia or Darfur.

 

[Sak01]

Without a doubt. Just wanted to point out some of the other forces at work. The point being that if it wasn't for oil, Libya would get about as much attention as Somalia or Darfur.

I'm glad we're on the same page. I think I've spent too much time recently getting some friends and family of mine to snap out of the global conspiracy mindset.

Aside from oil, defence contracts are also a big motivator for intervention as well as other natural resources plus the bonus of opening up a new market for businesses. Then there's the long-term strategic goal of nipping certain ideological movements in the bud before they snowball or 'domino effect' there way to becoming a major opposition power.

 

[noah way]

Then there's the long-term strategic goal of nipping certain ideological movements in the bud before they snowball or 'domino effect' there way to becoming a major opposition power.

Which is quite often exactly what happens. Like Iran, where a CIA coup in '53 led to a popular revolution in '79 and the installation of a radically anti-US regime. Or Israel's funding of Islamic fundamentalists in the '60s in an attempt to derail a pan-Arabic state.

Other "benefits" aside, I tend to look at "freedom and democracy" as code words for capitalism, and at "spreading freedom and democracy" as an excuse to destroy any system that might possibly compete with capitalism.

Along those lines it is interesting to note that Islamic banking does not charge interest, and that the Vatican has endorsed it.

 

[ElasticNinja]

Libya's "Islamic socialist" regime was anything but Noah, the country has a very high amount of oil/capita, yet crap living standards
I can see the west taking advantage of the Transitional Government, and installing their energy giants there (particularly France)

Even so, a Democratic government even under western influence and with a degree of resource exploitation, living conditions would get much higher

Remember, an oil rich Dictatorship has no reason to develop and enhance its society, an oil rich Democracy does

 

[Sak01]

Along those lines it is interesting to note that Islamic banking does not charge interest, and that the Vatican has endorsed it.

Thanks for that. I've often wondered how an interest free society would propose to fund major post-industrial revolution projects.

Even so, a Democratic government even under western influence and with a degree of resource exploitation, living conditions would get much higher

You say it like it's the only alternative to a dictatorship. Or is it the price they pay for help in removing their dictator?

You would have grounds for argument on both counts but for me it comes down to a matter of principles and in the long term, that's what counts.

 

[ElasticNinja]

I don't want exploitation lol
The new Libyan government should keep the existing state oil companies and re-invest the profits

Its Western companies that are keeping much of the third world poor, its only when the Third World groups up and makes its own companies that they get anywhere

 

[noah way]

Libya's "Islamic socialist" regime was anything but Noah, the country has a very high amount of oil/capita, yet crap living standards
I can see the west taking advantage of the Transitional Government, and installing their energy giants there (particularly France)

The energy giants are already there. Exxon is a major trader of Libyan crude. BP has a contract with the Libya National Oil Corp. ConocoPhillips and Marathon are stake holders in Libyan oil production.

Even so, a Democratic government even under western influence and with a degree of resource exploitation, living conditions would get much higher

Remember, an oil rich Dictatorship has no reason to develop and enhance its society, an oil rich Democracy does

When Iran's democratically elected prime minister and parliament nationalized oil in 1951, the CIA (with the British) overthrew the government and installed a military dictatorship. The intent of oil nationalization was to improve living conditions in Iran. The coup did the exact opposite, funneling off Iran's oil wealth and eventually bringing to power a fundamentalist anti-US regime (the 1979 Iranian revolution).

The same argument could be applied to Iraq, where the standard of living has (perversely) fallen dramatically since Saddam Hussein and the institution of "democracy".

The only oil rich democracies that I know of are Canada and Norway. We haven't intervened there (yet).

 

[Sak01]

I don't want exploitation lol
The new Libyan government should keep the existing state oil companies and re-invest the profits

Its Western companies that are keeping much of the third world poor, its only when the Third World groups up and makes its own companies that they get anywhere

I don't mind companies going out there to make as much profit as possible. That's business at the end of the day. It's when they influence governments (foreign and home) or when our own government makes it a policy to protect their profits by any means necessary that leads to ordinary people getting hurt.

The story of Anglo Iranian Oil, as Noah has mentioned, is something which has repeated itself many many times all over the world. I have some ideas about how it'll end but it won't be soon.