Think of it like this:
iPhone = Windows
Android = linux
/end
You have it backwards.
iPhone is exactly like a Macintosh computer circa 1980's. It is a singular platform, well-built, and only available through certain distribution channels. On one end, it is a great system since the platform is very singular in hardware nature, and OS.
On the other end, Android is like Windows. It crashes a lot, has a ton of different hardware inside the machines, but can be sold through anyone, to anyone, regardless of retailer (carrier).
And it's for that reason that the windows-esque device, the Android, will win.
Some may find it odd, but not everyone wants to be on AT&T to use an iPhone. Not everyone wants to fork over the money for an iPhone. Some people may not like the way it looks from a form factor standpoint.
And it is for those reasons that Android can capitalize on the iPhone. That doesn't mean the iPhone will die or go away, but it means that the Android will likely beat it in market share in a few years. Its not like the Apple II, Amiga, or Commidore were beat overnight by windows. It took years, yet we complain that Android isn't the iPhone killer in a matter of a year.
Android still needs another year to flesh out where it'll stand, but I think that given the history of PCs, Android will wind up having a large portion of market share compared to devices that are tied into one manufacturer like RIM, and certain carriers like the iPhone.