Right on. As has been discussed a number of times, it's not the phone that makes VZW money, it's the new contract, or new extension of an old contract. Subs = $$.
Also, let's not forget that the Incredible has passed FCC certification (FCC ID# NM8PB31200). While I suppose that it's not impossible, IMHO it's highly unlikely that the phone would be final enough to be put through the FCC, yet fail in a way that requires a re-design (and thus re-cert) and/or be totally scrapped.
For those who doubt that this phone is real, and is coming to VZW, look back at NKT's posts. He has proven to be highly credible, and he has clearly said that once the phone makes it as far into testing as it was when he got to play with it, the hardware is final, and at most there might be some software tweaking prior to release.
All we need now is an official announcement, and a solid date and we are golden. By the way, I know this has also been discussed, but the Droid was only announced 10 days before it was released, so the fact that VZW has been silent as to the Incredible does not in any way rule out / make unlikely an April release.