I'm not sure the composition has changed enough since Gonzales v Raich, but it may have.
2 of those who voted in favor of the government have since retired and been replaced.
Scalia can be swayed. It doesn't believe that the Commerce Clause gives Congress the right to regulate commerce inside a state.
I think it can be successfully argued that it is not necessary for the Federal Government to have this authority in order to execute their other powers.
I think it's very likely that it has shifted enough. They only need two votes to change.
Scalia's and Alito?