Some good points, Kappy. When paired w/ other info we know, I think A makes the most sense. Combine the early upgrade promo w/ the BOGO deal and the 2.1 update and the Droid & Eris look pretty good. That gives VZW about 2 weeks to push these two phones before they usher in the next generation: the Devour and the Incredible.
I think we'll then see a significant March Madness ad campaign to generate excitement for the release of the Devour (3/25) & Incredible (3/27?), followed by 4 more weeks of the early upgrade promo.
From a marketing standpoint, it seems like a pretty logical way to satisfy Droid/Eris users, entice potential Devour/Incredible customers, and get a significant number of people signed to 2-year contracts before AT&T launches the next iPhone in June. Just my $.02.