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Evo 4G shortage and will history repeat itself

novox77

novox77

Leeeroy Jennnkinnns!
Back when Evo 4G was new and hot, lots of people had a really hard time getting their hands on them. If I recall correctly, the reason given for the shortage was due to a lack of available display screens coming from Samsung. A lot of us accepted this reason, but it doesn't add up. The original Evo screens were made by Epson and Novatel. It was much later that S-LCDs were used on Evos. And it's S-LCD that could be attributed to Samsung (but more typically Sony).

The theory to the shortage went further to explain that due to the worldwide recession, many makers of displays (LCD and Plasma) were severely reducing production as well as closing many manufacturing plants, Samsung included. And the smartphone explosion kinda caught everyone off-guard, which meant display shortages not only for Evo but for other phones as well.

So... did the status quo change? I look on Sprint's site, and the Evo is still not available online. Stores only. Is there still a shortage? Or is it a non-issue since demand for Evo is now low?

Are we going to see a repeat with the Evo 3D? I would think HTC and Sprint learned a lesson about demand for this phone, and they're going to have more supply this time around. Will they have enough to meet demand? Will the demand for Evo 3D match that of the Evo or be significantly different in either direction? Is all of this irrelevant if there's still a shortage of display screens?

Would be curious if someone had some insight into the real reason why there was a shortage for Evo 4G and what has changed this time around. I bring this up only cause not many people seem to be worried that there could be a supply shortage this time around.
 
Don't know about the 4g; but there will very likely be shortages here. I know there is generally a shortage on screens and a few other key parts. After all Samsung announced a while back that they were delay certain releases due to shortage of key components. We've also seen this through out the year (prior to Japan earthquake) that various gadgets simply can't meet demand and Japan eq has caused additional shortages of key components. I forget if this phone is using a sharp panel but I know sharp had mild damage where they make panels for tvs. Also chips (I forget which ones) have been in very tight supply. For a while china was rationing rare metals which didn't help.

Anyways my expectation is that supply will be very limited but I could be totally off on this one.

novox77 said:
Back when Evo 4G was new and hot, lots of people had a really hard time getting their hands on them. If I recall correctly, the reason given for the shortage was due to a lack of available display screens coming from Samsung. A lot of us accepted this reason, but it doesn't add up. The original Evo screens were made by Epson and Novatel. It was much later that S-LCDs were used on Evos. And it's S-LCD that could be attributed to Samsung (but more typically Sony).

The theory to the shortage went further to explain that due to the worldwide recession, many makers of displays (LCD and Plasma) were severely reducing production as well as closing many manufacturing plants, Samsung included. And the smartphone explosion kinda caught everyone off-guard, which meant display shortages not only for Evo but for other phones as well.

So... did the status quo change? I look on Sprint's site, and the Evo is still not available online. Stores only. Is there still a shortage? Or is it a non-issue since demand for Evo is now low?

Are we going to see a repeat with the Evo 3D? I would think HTC and Sprint learned a lesson about demand for this phone, and they're going to have more supply this time around. Will they have enough to meet demand? Will the demand for Evo 3D match that of the Evo or be significantly different in either direction? Is all of this irrelevant if there's still a shortage of display screens?

Would be curious if someone had some insight into the real reason why there was a shortage for Evo 4G and what has changed this time around. I bring this up only cause not many people seem to be worried that there could be a supply shortage this time around.
Click to expand...
 
I would say sprint and HTC are more prepare for the HTC 3D launch. The question is will the EVO3D have the same impact and demand as the EVO 4G.
 
Bnice said:
I would say sprint and HTC are more prepare for the HTC 3D launch. The question is will the EVO3D have the same impact and demand as the EVO 4G.
Click to expand...


Well for one, I dont think demand will be as high for the EVO 3D as the EVO was.

First, the EVO was an unmatched Android phone in itself when even other carriers didnt have that high of specs(Droid Inc. was the closest). So that helped bring over new customers.

Now there are far more options for Android, hell even on Sprint itself for Android phones and WiMax...Nexus S, EVO, EPIC, Shift and EVO 3D. More options brings less demand for just one(ie: iPhone scenario).

Plus, how many Sprint customers still landed under the Premier Gold bonus? So not everyone can upgrade once a year now.

But I still think the EVO 3D will do great, and could be shortages.
 
I believe HTC was planning to go with AMOLED-type screens for all of its top-end phones when the shortage hit.

AMOLED shortage threatens Android supply lines | TG Daily

Samsung Mobile Display about the AMOLED shortage

I never believed the shortages were due just to the screens, as opposed to just bad planning on what to expect for the Evo. I don't recall months-long shortages for the other phones, such as the Desire.

HTC running low on AMOLED stock, will add SLCD to the mix for some models -- Engadget

Note well the cross-referencing in the following -

HTC Forced to Switch to Super TFT LCD From AMOLED Due to Shortages [Update: HTC Plans to Use Both] | Android Community

The Desire and Google Nexus One from HTC must switch from AMOLED to LCD

If the S-LCD display is indeed IPS, I'm eating crow, right here and now. (But that would mean they're making Super TFT-LCD, not Super LCD as I've ranted earlier.)

Sony's pushed for relevance before they went first with the S-LCD venture, then later with their Sharp venture -

Sony Global - Press Release - Sony to start mass production of mobile Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED) Display next Spring Sony's original full-color "Super Top Emission
 
novox77 said:
Back when Evo 4G was new and hot, lots of people had a really hard time getting their hands on them. If I recall correctly, the reason given for the shortage was due to a lack of available display screens coming from Samsung. A lot of us accepted this reason, but it doesn't add up. The original Evo screens were made by Epson and Novatel. It was much later that S-LCDs were used on Evos. And it's S-LCD that could be attributed to Samsung (but more typically Sony).

The theory to the shortage went further to explain that due to the worldwide recession, many makers of displays (LCD and Plasma) were severely reducing production as well as closing many manufacturing plants, Samsung included. And the smartphone explosion kinda caught everyone off-guard, which meant display shortages not only for Evo but for other phones as well.

So... did the status quo change? I look on Sprint's site, and the Evo is still not available online. Stores only. Is there still a shortage? Or is it a non-issue since demand for Evo is now low?

Are we going to see a repeat with the Evo 3D? I would think HTC and Sprint learned a lesson about demand for this phone, and they're going to have more supply this time around. Will they have enough to meet demand? Will the demand for Evo 3D match that of the Evo or be significantly different in either direction? Is all of this irrelevant if there's still a shortage of display screens?

Would be curious if someone had some insight into the real reason why there was a shortage for Evo 4G and what has changed this time around. I bring this up only cause not many people seem to be worried that there could be a supply shortage this time around.
Click to expand...

Of course EarlyMon got to this before me and made a much more eloquent statement but the original shortage due to Samsung displays was the Incredible and not the Evo because the Incredible uses Samsung's AMOLED.

As far as the Evo 4g shortages I have a couple guesses.

First and foremost Sprint is currently the nations 3rd largest carrier but clearly dwarfed by Verizon and AT&T in terms of subscribers so their orders/runs are going to be smaller. Most probably they have a formula or a percentage of the number of subscribers that gives them an inventory number to shoot for and then they probably add a certain percentage more based on possible new subscribers.
Secondly I firmly believe they were skittish about over ordering for a few reasons. The Palm Pre launch being number one. It went nowhere near as well as it was initially anticipated. Number two, in their business it is better to look like your Flagship phone has sold out and is hard to find rather than having way too many; it is a perception thing.
Thirdly the phone did and continues to sell extremely well. As soon as it is in stock it goes right back out of stock again. No need to increase factory orders considering the Evo 3d is about a month away.
And finally HTC makes a ton of phones and quite a few of them go out of stock on other carriers as well. They are selling an insane amount of devices.

These are of course all just educated guesses on my part but I would be shocked if any of them are significantly off.
 
I tend to believe that HTC/Sprint way underestimated the demand for the phone. Sprint had been in a slump for a while, so there was no indication the Evo could change things that much. So Sprint spent a ton of money on ad campaigns on Evo hoping it would make a dent. And as we all know, it did more than that.

Interestingly, the Samsung Epic was kind of a flop. And there was very little advertising for it. Did Sprint miscalculate, thinking that Evo and the overall Android movement would be enough to guarantee the Epic's success?

Does anyone remember at what point we started to see Evo commercials on TV relative to launch date?
 
i think ...

e3d will do well.. not as well as the evo.

but..because there are a lot of satisfied android users on EVO and EVO like products... their is not a huge market of users ready to jump.

the sprint current 4G issues.. and not as fast and available as other 4G options... Wimax was a huge thing when it was the only 4G option.

there will be good demand...but i dont think it will be as huge demand for the e3d as the evo...

but there will be supply issues because of japan's current environment and tragedy.

sprint knows all that.. and will under order so they dont over stock...

all this adds up to ... all the conditions ... there will be a shortage.
 
interesting... only a few days before launch.... So then I question whether the commercials were responsible for the Evo's quick success. People must have known about the phone beforehand, and I'm not talking about the people like us who speculate for months in anticipation. If the Evo really sold ~150k units the first weekend, how did the public know about the phone? Was the commercial that aired a week before enough?

and yeah, I remember the commercials being very 4G-centric, even after the phone was sold out and impossible to get. I guess this time around, they're going to focus on the 3D, though I hope it's a more well-rounded presentation of the phone's capabilities this time.
 
novox77 said:
I tend to believe that HTC/Sprint way underestimated the demand for the phone. Sprint had been in a slump for a while, so there was no indication the Evo could change things that much. So Sprint spent a ton of money on ad campaigns on Evo hoping it would make a dent. And as we all know, it did more than that.

Interestingly, the Samsung Epic was kind of a flop. And there was very little advertising for it. Did Sprint miscalculate, thinking that Evo and the overall Android movement would be enough to guarantee the Epic's success?

Does anyone remember at what point we started to see Evo commercials on TV relative to launch date?
Click to expand...

I think the first commercial I saw was online. I didn't see one on TV until way after I had actually gotten mine (on launch day) and the first HTC branded Evo commercial wasn't until almost end of Summer which I recorded with my Evo and posted on Youtube. Sprint did the majority of their pre-sales advertising online (web banners, etc), through word of mouth, distributing them to every Google I/O attendant, and then the "First" commercial days before launch.
 
Well - the blogosphere was nuts over it, since CTIA 2010 and Google I/O 2010.

I remember Sprint tech support chatting with me at length over a month before its release, while we walked thru yet another round of Samsung Moment failures over the phone - and I'd also seen it blogged by then - so that's when I made my decision.

My Sprint store told me at least a few weeks before launch, when asked, that yep, they had a sign-up sheet, it was piece of paper as I recall.

So, I think the launch might've been driven by viral marketing as much as anything.
 
sikclown said:
Of course EarlyMon got to this before me and made a much more eloquent statement but the original shortage due to Samsung displays was the Incredible and not the Evo because the Incredible uses Samsung's AMOLED.
Click to expand...

If my memory serves me right I thought the incredible initially launched with lcd screens and because of that shortage they then switched to amoled. Someone correct me if I am wrong.
 
I'll be pissed if this thing is not in stock when I go to get it. Good thing I can go to a remote area.
 
I'll pre order at the local Radio Shack again. Walk in, finish payment, and leave. No hassle no lines no wait. Also got a $20 gift card to use at the phones arrival when I preordered

Yea, I remember the memories of pre E4G launch... Ahh I couldn't wait and hung on every little update. IMO the EVO was the turning point for Android vs Apple. I think 4G is really what woke up the tunnel vision iPhone users and the ones who like to make their own decisions began making them again. Who would have thought Sprint would be the game changer. Finally, 10 years with Sprint and they give me an industry leader phone. I can't wait to spend endless nights learning the new joys of my 3D .. and rooting hacking modding. I hope Matlock will begin a new Rooting guide.. :) I'm excited.
 
I'll be heavily entrenched in the "all things root" thread helping people achieve rooted phones. Go take a look at the thread now. Aww how cute, only three threads. That place is going to be packed some day.
 
I think people are going to go absolutely bonkers on launch weekend.

The Evo 4G launch was a complete zoo. I expect it will be exactly the same for the Evo3D.

Sprint hasn't started a real advertising push either, so the buzz on the street has yet to ferment.
 
SaleenFiend said:
I'll pre order at the local Radio Shack again. Walk in, finish payment, and leave. No hassle no lines no wait. Also got a $20 gift card to use at the phones arrival when I preordered

Yea, I remember the memories of pre E4G launch... Ahh I couldn't wait and hung on every little update. IMO the EVO was the turning point for Android vs Apple. I think 4G is really what woke up the tunnel vision iPhone users and the ones who like to make their own decisions began making them again. Who would have thought Sprint would be the game changer. Finally, 10 years with Sprint and they give me an industry leader phone. I can't wait to spend endless nights learning the new joys of my 3D .. and rooting hacking modding. I hope Matlock will begin a new Rooting guide.. :) I'm excited.
Click to expand...

Are we certain there will be opportunity to pre-order at Radio Shack?

That's where I got mine on launch day last year as well. Simple. No lines. I'd much rather repeat that than order from Best Buy.
 
Sketchr said:
Are we certain there will be opportunity to pre-order at Radio Shack?

That's where I got mine on launch day last year as well. Simple. No lines. I'd much rather repeat that than order from Best Buy.
Click to expand...

I'm sure there will be. (My opinion)
 
I am not even certain how big the demand on this product currently is. If we base it on thread traffic, the EVO 4G demand dwarfed that of the EVO 3D. Will there be shortages? If people flock to it like they did the 4G, sure there will. Preliminary evidence suggests otherwise though.
 
I agree with most of the points made here. I really doubt that the EVO 3D will make as much as an impact as the original EVO. It will still sell pretty well though. That I know for sure. Will I be upgrading to this...no. I'll never forget when I first got the EVO. All the computers were down and there were long lines at Best Buy. It took 2 hours for the whole process lol. Ahhhh those were good times.
 
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