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***Official Galaxy Nexus Pre-Release speculation thread**

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Waiting for the sleep pills to kick in (see what waiting is doing to me Verizon?!?) I've decided to go down the list of suspected dates and list how likely it is that it will get released that day. I have no sources, friends that work for Verizon, obsession with Asian bears, or have a million twitter followers.... but i did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

Nov 17 - 30% Chance
Nov 18 - 10% Chance
Nov 21 - 50% Chance with a 10% chance of web only (sound like a weather guy)
Nov 28 - 29.6% chance
Dec 1 - 20%
Dec 8 - 5%

did I miss any?
 
th0r615 said:
Waiting for the sleep pills to kick in (see what waiting is doing to me Verizon?!?) I've decided to go down the list of suspected dates and list how likely it is that it will get released that day. I have no sources, friends that work for Verizon, obsession with Asian bears, or have a million twitter followers.... but i did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

Nov 17 - 30% Chance
Nov 18 - 10% Chance
Nov 21 - 50% Chance with a 10% chance of web only (sound like a weather guy)
Nov 28 - 29.6% chance
Dec 1 - 20%
Dec 8 - 5%

did I miss any?
Click to expand...


So the 17th remains near the top in 2nd place I like : )
 
jasaero said:
Yeah. I mentioned that there was already an official press release stating it will be out before years end. He then said he knew nothing. All seemed pretty prepared like he isn't supposed to say or hint anything somehow the way he delivered it. I could be reading into things.
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thats a sales technique from the start meant to discourage you into getting something else, and when you caught him in a lie, he had to play the "i didnt know game" to not make him self look bad.

i play that game with bad customers.

my rule: nice customers (not necessarily buying) get honest treatment, bad customers even if they buy get what ever game i feel like playing.
 
Oh what the hell. Who needs a full 4 hours of sleep. One last step outside for a quick smoke. That means you all have about 8-10 minutes to post some very exciting and positive news...
:)
 
th0r615 said:
Waiting for the sleep pills to kick in (see what waiting is doing to me Verizon?!?) I've decided to go down the list of suspected dates and list how likely it is that it will get released that day. I have no sources, friends that work for Verizon, obsession with Asian bears, or have a million twitter followers.... but i did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

Nov 17 - 30% Chance
Nov 18 - 10% Chance
Nov 21 - 50% Chance with a 10% chance of web only (sound like a weather guy)
Nov 28 - 29.6% chance
Dec 1 - 20%
Dec 8 - 5%

did I miss any?
Click to expand...

Those add up to 144.6%....

Unless we accept that each release day is an independent event (like consecutive coin tosses (and any other coin tosses, for that matter)). However, that is not true. If it is released on the 17, it no longer has a nonzero chance of being released on any subsequent day. :p

All we know now (if VZW did not lie) is that P(release before 1/1/2011)=1. Now, I would go so far as to say that it is logical that P(release before 1 Dec 2011) > .5, given all the rumors. But that is not fact.

-Nkk
 
Sleep Pills still not working.... I WANT TO SLEEP! But I am a little out of it... just not tired... more like kinda drunk. ANYWAY.

Verizon please just take my money already. Sell it on the 17th, just sent out a press release and get it in my hands. Don't promote it or advertise it, just sell it already. I don't care about whatever bug there is (obviously it isn't big or would have been found sooner) just fix it and have good ole' Google sent out an OTA to fix it. Y U NO TAKE MY MONEYZ
 
th0r615 said:
They aren't supposed to add to 100%... you don't add 60% chance of showers with 90% chance of rain and say "We have a 150% of rain this week"
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But rain on Monday does not disqualify rain on Tuesday. A release on Monday absolutely disqualifies a release on Tuesday.

-Nkk

EDIT: I was not calling you out or anything. Just some gently ribbing. I am sure your post was not said with a stone-cold serious tone. My reply was in the same not-too-serious vein. I sincerely hope I did not offend you.
 
gapi said:
So........ whats your next move. You gonna hang tight with us Mr. Prosecutor?
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Don't know. If nothing is announced by this Friday, I might hang with the HTC device until the turtle-assed morons finally make a move.

IgnatiusXIX said:
Which "update" to that post are you referring to though Han? The last one mentions the Matias quote stating a November-ish release.

I was inclined to believe it as well, but now seeing how that article has been "updated" several times since I first read it, its a fluid situation that's changing by the hour almost. Lends me to believe its a little tom-foolery going around... again though, I MUST stress-- anything until Verizon publicly says otherwise, is just speculation and rumor.
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Well, they're still giving a lot of credence to the source who said that testing was continuing until the 19th. If that is so, I don't think they'd release 2 days later, especially if the testing cycle revealed some major bugs that had to be worked out before release.

Matias, a Google man, doesn't know what Verizon is doing, I don't think. I'm inclined to believe that Verizon doesn't even know the final date yet.

All I know is that this is getting really old, really fast.
 
Guys and gals. Stop harassing sales reps... They know nothing, really nothing. And even if they do, they won't tell you anyway. Don't waste your and their time. :)
 
th0r615 said:
stop yelling at me with your logic!
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:p Not yelling. Since you responded so quickly, I am just going to repeat a clarification edit I made:

nkk said:
EDIT: I was not calling you out or anything. Just some gently ribbing. I am sure your post was not said with a stone-cold serious tone. My reply was in the same not-too-serious vein. I sincerely hope I did not offend you.
Click to expand...

-nkk
 
nkk said:
Those add up to 144.6%....

Unless we accept that each release day is an independent event (like consecutive coin tosses (and any other coin tosses, for that matter)). However, that is not true. If it is released on the 17, it no longer has a nonzero chance of being released on any subsequent day. :p

All we know now (if VZW did not lie) is that P(release before 1/1/2011)=1. Now, I would go so far as to say that it is logical that P(release before 1 Dec 2011) > .5, given all the rumors. But that is not fact.

-Nkk
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You sir, are no statistician. Each chance is independent of others. Doesn't matter if, independently, they add up to 100% or not.

Anyways-to the people getting in touch with Verizon employees and being dicks to them-stop, it's pathetic and juvenile.
 
Crayon said:
You sir, are no statistician. Each chance is independent of others. Doesn't matter if, independently, they add up to 100% or not.

Anyways-to the people getting in touch with Verizon employees and being dicks to them-stop, it's pathetic and juvenile.
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Ugh...They are not independent. A release on the 17 Nov disqualifies a release on the 18 Nov and beyond. :)

-Nkk
 
BuTbKa said:
Guys and gals. Stop harassing sales reps... They know nothing, really nothing. And even if they do, they won't tell you anyway. Don't waste your and their time. :)
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Oh yeah, this reminds me. My sister texted me a couple days ago about this (she reads this thread from time to time on her off-time, but she's not a member), and said that sales reps are even encouraged to stress that they have no knowledge of devices that aren't yet released, even if they do.

And if they flat out lie and say "No, we're not even sure that device is coming", they aren't given prizes for it, but they're not wrist-slapped either. It's more of a wink-wink-nudge-nudge thing. Their only purpose is to sell something to you today, not tomorrow or next month.

So yeah, it is completely useless to hit them up.
 
Crayon said:
You sir, are no statistician. Each chance is independent of others. Doesn't matter if, independently, they add up to 100% or not.

Anyways-to the people getting in touch with Verizon employees and being dicks to them-stop, it's pathetic and juvenile.
Click to expand...

I'm really not rude at all? The only thing I said is "that they were clueless", and the other times I've contacted them I've always been courteous and polite. Her arrogance and lack of proper grammar really annoyed me lol That's all.
 
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