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***Official Galaxy Nexus Pre-Release speculation thread**

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Statistically speaking... I tend to prefer nkk's %distribution method for this particular case. Only one release day possible, discounting a non-listed outcome, and being we're giving this at the current date, the % should add to 100. Once we have hit a date and its been fruitless, only then does it effect the next results. Currently we're in a roullette-type situation haha.

Ugh, im so hungry for icecream.
 
To those arguing over the statistical thing:

When the weather guy tells you that there is a 40% chance of rain on each day of the week, do you call the station and tell him he's an idiot? :p
 
nkk said:
Emphasis mine.

I'm sorry...are you asserting that a release on the 17th does not disqualify a release on the 18th? I don't understand....

-Nkk

EDIT to add that I am not pursuing this debate further. It is not a big deal, and the OP of the stats and I concluded our ribbing/whatever it was. I have no interest in pontificating about methods of statistical analysis right now.
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Gonna have to agree with NKK on this one.

P(11/18 release | 11/17 release) = P(11/18 release && 11/17 release) / P(11/17 release) = 0

P(A|B) = P(A&B)/P(B).

If events A and B were independent, P(A & B) = P(A)P(B) => P(A|B) = P(A)

If we define the sample space S of release dates as the set {11/17, 11/18, 11/21...etc} and given that each date is disjoint, then the of the probabilities of the release dates have to sum to 1.

:p
 
HanSolo said:
To those arguing over the statistical thing:

When the weather guy tells you that there is a 40% chance of rain on each day of the week, do you call the station and tell him he's an idiot? :p
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:p

Rain on Tuesday does not disqualify rain on Wed. However, a release on Tues does disqualify a release on any subsequent day.

Hans, you should know this. :p :) :p :D

-Nkk
 
"You are eligible to upgrade with discounted pricing. If you upgrade on or after 6/08/12 you are eligible to receive an additional loyalty discount."

Can someone please explain what this means any phone i can get hangs in the balance.
 
WalmartSecurity said:
Gonna have to agree with NKK on this one.

P(11/18 release | 11/17 release) = P(11/18 release && 11/17 release) / P(11/17 release) = 0

P(A|B) = P(A&B)/P(B).

If events A and B were independent, P(A & B) = P(A)P(B) => P(A|B) = P(A)

If we define the sample space S of release dates as the set {11/17, 11/18, 11/21...etc} and given that each date is disjoint, then the of the probabilities of the release dates have to sum to 1.

:p
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The Xero said:
"You are eligible to upgrade with discounted pricing. If you upgrade on or after 6/08/12 you are eligible to receive an additional loyalty discount."

Can someone please explain what this means any phone i can get hangs in the balance.
Click to expand...

You can upgrade now with a subsidized price or you can upgrade later in June. If you decide to wait until June you will get an extra discount off the subsidized price (usually $30-$50)
 
WalmartSecurity said:
Gonna have to agree with NKK on this one.

P(11/18 release | 11/17 release) = P(11/18 release && 11/17 release) / P(11/17 release) = 0

P(A|B) = P(A&B)/P(B).

If events A and B were independent, P(A & B) = P(A)P(B) => P(A|B) = P(A)

If we define the sample space S of release dates as the set {11/17, 11/18, 11/21...etc} and given that each date is disjoint, then the of the probabilities of the release dates have to sum to 1.

:p
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I understood every bit of this post.. not being sarcastic.. Hooray datamining class already paying off!
 
nkk said:
:p

Rain on Tuesday does not disqualify rain on Wed. However, a release on Tues does disqualify a release on any subsequent day.

Hans, you should know this. :p :) :p :D

-Nkk
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Yes but I got the impression that the chart was not on a disqualifying grade. I took it to mean that from today's standpoint, these are the chances for each potential release date.

As we get closer to actual launch, one or two of those chances will increase into the 90's, while the others will zero out.
 
I will put the statistical argument to rest:

any attempt at a statistical analysis of a release date is itself flawed. There its done. We can move on now :D
 
Hi Guys,

I deleted several posts that were ignoring moderator announcements and/or fighting. Please keep it civil. I know it's hard when info is so scarce. Historically, that's when attitudes and tempers show themselves. Let's be better than that and enjoy each other and the experience of the wait. Thanks!

Steven
 
i think we should remove the date from the title, its just false hope at this point. im sure that the 17th -was- a planned release date. but, as we've known since the minute the live event ended and there was no carrier info, theres some stuff going down behind the scenes. if you read just the last few hours of this thread, youll be linked to info and rumors of "within this month", "within a month", the 17th, 18th, 21st, 28th, dec 1st, dec 8th and "before christmas". this is all really off putting, i cant believe this is a "sell more razors" issue anymore. this will be a botched launch if they dont have it out before black friday

also, this is definitely the lowest we've ever hit. a week ago today it seemed like it was set in stone we would have the phone either on the 17th or the 21st. now, three days before the 17th, one of our most reliable sources is saying they heard it was delayed. cant wait to hear from stevens source
 
brain85 said:
Oh wow, now even my TV is teasing me.

I have the TV on (not really watching), and I hear "nexus." I turned my head around so fast that I could have snapped it.

Turns out it was a commercial for nexus hair salon product.
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Hahaha good to know I'm not the only one. I did the same thing yesterday. :D
 
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